Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.88+1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REZI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -50.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REZI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-04
President and Chief Executive Officer, principal financial officer — Thomas Surran: Thomas Surran was promoted to additional roles following the Distribution.
Why it matters: Revenue growth will indicate if Resideo is on track for its 4%-5% CAGR target.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 8% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 4% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Achieving this margin would indicate progress towards the long-term target of 43%-45% by 2030.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 43% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin is below 41%. This points to problems with managing costs.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for financial health. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to Q1.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Completing the spin-off will make Resideo's focus and plans clearer.
Supportive ifThe spin-off will be complete between mid-third quarter and mid-fourth quarter 2026.
Worry ifDelay or complications in the spin-off process.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $541 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,676 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger finances. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $150 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $100 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: The spin-off will show how Resideo focuses on its own goals and money.
Watch forQ3 2026 results show better performance than expected before the spin-off.
Also watch forQ3 2026 results show worse performance than expected before the spin-off.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows good product demand and market position. This boosts overall performance.
Supportive ifProducts & Solutions revenue is growing more than 10% each year.
Worry ifProducts & Solutions revenue is growing less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income will rise above $102 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $102 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. This helps with profits in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating income is up from the $102M reported in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifOperating income keeps falling below the $102M reported in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and performance. The new CEO's direction is key.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a press release.
Also watch forNo clear strategy or vision is communicated by the new CEO.
Why it matters: Operating income matters for making money. Changes show how well management is doing.
Watch forOperating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1.
Also watch forOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show problems in operations. This can change how investors feel about growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is less than $216 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is more than $230 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Resideo can maintain its growth trend after the ADI spin-off.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported within the guidance range of $705M to $730M.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $705M. This shows possible weakness after the spin-off.
Why it matters: If this margin increases, it shows strong efficiency after the spin-off.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 23% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 20%. This shows struggles in operations.