Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$262.11-1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGLD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $262 RGLD trades at 28× p/e — 1.6× the 18× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $195 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $280–$311. Note: our $195 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($280–$311). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $323 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $307.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $136.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $167.96 | 12.2 | 13.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $182.45 | 15.0 | 12.15 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$280.00 – $311.00 (median $307.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-14
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 82% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.45/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2026-Q4
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $32.26 |
| 1.5 |
| 21.63 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $239.93 | 25.9 | 9.26 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $90.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $165.57 | 17.9 | 9.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 3Y | $254.33 | 12.2 | 20.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $239.18 | 15.0 | 15.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $46.47 | 1.5 | 31.15 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $412.83 | 25.9 | 15.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 5Y | $335.66 | 12.2 | 27.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $303.32 | 15.0 | 20.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $58.93 | 1.5 | 39.51 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $523.55 | 25.9 | 20.21 | Analyst | medium |