Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$262.11-1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGLD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 5, 2026, Royal Gold, Inc. reported its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the exhibit, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and will not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows a strong focus on keeping good cash flow and finances.
Supportive ifNews of an extra $100 million or more in debt repayment.
Worry ifNo further announcements of debt repayment in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth supports the company's growth strategy. It can enhance market perception.
Supportive ifRevenue increases above $469.1M in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $469.1M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income means the company is making more money. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifOperating income will rise above $297.1M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $297.1M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on the Warintza Project is key for future income and growth.
Supportive ifNews of the last $50 million payment to Solaris for the Warintza Project.
Worry ifDelay or stop of the last payment to Solaris.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $426 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,832 loss on $10,000 · 38.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if Royal Gold met its revenue and cash flow goals. This is key for investors to assess company performance.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue above $311 million in stream sales and $137 million in royalty sales.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue below $311 million in stream sales and $137 million in royalty sales.
Why it matters: Gold sales volumes are a key driver of revenue. Lower sales could signal weaker demand or operational issues.
Worry ifIn 2026, gold sales were below 290,000 ounces.
Less concerning ifGold sales were above 320,000 ounces.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifNews of more share buybacks in the $500 million program.
Worry ifNo announcements of share repurchases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth improves, it can positively impact Royal Gold's performance. It signals a healthier market.
Watch forSector revenue growth exceeds 1% in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Buying back shares shows that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifRoyal Gold bought back another $50 million in shares in Q2.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in gold prices could hurt revenue and profit margins.
Worry ifAverage realized gold price reported below $4,000 per ounce.
Less concerning ifAverage realized gold price reported above $4,500 per ounce.
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows strong financial health and good money management.
Supportive ifThey will repay at least $75 million on the revolving credit facility.
Worry ifNo debt repayment or an increase in drawn amounts on the facility.
Why it matters: Paying off debt helps Royal Gold's cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifRoyal Gold announces an additional debt repayment of at least $100 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of further debt repayments in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Funding progress for the Warintza Project is important for future revenue. Delays or issues could impact cash flow.
Supportive ifRoyal Gold has finished the last $50 million payment for the Warintza Project.
Worry ifNo announcement of the remaining $50 million advance payment by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A good restructuring could help Royal Gold's royalty interests and increase revenue.
Supportive ifBear Creek's restructuring is complete, and there will be more royalty interests.
Worry ifThe restructuring might not happen. Expected royalty interests could go down.
Why it matters: More copper sales would show strong demand and good performance.
Supportive ifCopper sales volume exceeds 25 million pounds in Q3.
Worry ifCopper sales volume remains below 21 million pounds in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows management cares about giving value to shareholders. It also shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above the current $0.475 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand. It also shows good management of the portfolio.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 100% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows good financial habits. It also helps with cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement repays at least $200 million in debt during Q3.
Worry ifDebt repayment is less than $200 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Buying back shares can show that management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifManagement buys back at least $30 million in shares during Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on this project could enhance future revenue and cash flow.
Watch forNew news or funding for the Hod Maden Project is announced.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in progress on the Hod Maden Project.