Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
$246.08+6.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGLD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2026, Royal Gold, Inc. reported its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the exhibit, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and will not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of…
Why it matters: The final report on November 4 will test the preliminary stream sales figure. A shortfall would weaken the quarter's reported sales.
Worry ifFinal Q3 stream sales are below $318.3 million.
Less concerning ifFinal Q3 stream sales meet or exceed $318.3 million.
Why it matters: After Q2, gold sales were 143,968 ounces against a full-year range of 290,000 to 320,000. Final results will show if sales stay on track.
Watch forFull-year gold sales reach at least 290,000 ounces, and silver sales reach at least 3.0 million ounces.
Also watch forFull-year gold sales fall below 290,000 ounces, or silver sales fall below 3.0 million ounces.
Why it matters: Royal Gold gave a preliminary royalty sales range of $143 million to $149 million. A lower final result would weaken the quarter's sales picture.
Worry ifFinal Q3 royalty sales are below $143 million, the low end of the preliminary range.
Less concerning ifFinal Q3 royalty sales are at least $143 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $383 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,832 loss on $10,000 · 38.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.