Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
$246.08+6.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.89 → 12.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RGLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital allocation flexibility with buybacks and tools | Capital tools like share buybacks add flexibility. | Improving | Capital allocation tools reduced or share repurchases halted | qualitative: buyback initiated (Aug 2026) vs target maintain tools Aug 2026 headline confirms buyback start; Jun 2026 analyst note flagged stake reduction but no halt to buybacks. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a precious-metals royalty business with a growth thesis tied to portfolio expansion and a supportive sector backdrop. Its thesis state is intact, though confidence is low and execution risk is elevated.
RGLD is tagged as stretched and trades at a 1.5 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest. The valuation evidence has low model confidence, so how much growth is already assumed remains uncertain.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management is on track with portfolio investment, debt repayment, liquidity, and dividend growth priorities. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 51% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk; the evidence does not establish whether this run will continue.
The next guidance update matters: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution on portfolio growth would support the multi-year thesis. Sector bellwethers NEM, CDE, and AGI are another swing factor, since stronger results could sustain the Materials tailwind and weaker results could fade it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RGLD’s thesis rests on growth investments and sound financial execution, set against elevated near-term earnings risk and a stretched valuation. Low confidence means the evidence is limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% annual increase. |
| Intact |
| Dividend growth falls below 6% annually |
Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% annual increase. Target and observation units differ. Aug 6, 20260.475 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also maintained our focus on increasing returns to shareholders and increased our annual dividend for the 25th consecutive year, and we have aggressively paid down debt from cash flow and rebuilt our liquidity after an active year.” “Enhanced Flexibility With Additional Capital Allocation Tools Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, and we remain committed to paying a growing and sustainable dividend, maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity, and reinvesting in our business when we see accretive growth opportunities.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross margin stays between 17% and 22% in FY26 | A primary condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is 17% to 22%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 17% in FY26 | Gross margin: 64.61% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 17% to 22%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202664.60706 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $1.93 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.93 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.93 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $450.539M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.93 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026450,539,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.29 → $12.74 · observed estimates
$2.10B → $2.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.29 | $2,095,297,760 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.10 | $2,079,622,200 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.10 | $2,079,622,200 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.10 | $2,079,622,200 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.16 | $2,097,872,200 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.07 | $2,054,849,080 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.82 | $2,178,331,035 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.82 | $2,178,331,035 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.82 | $2,178,331,035 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.07 | $2,054,849,080 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.07 | $2,054,849,080 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.81 | $2,178,331,037 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.81 | $2,178,331,037 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.81 | $2,178,331,037 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.16 | $2,229,999,390 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.16 | $2,229,999,390 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.16 | $2,229,999,390 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.93 | $2,232,067,100 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.93 | $2,232,067,100 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.84 | $2,180,883,781 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.94 | $2,152,378,063 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.94 | $2,152,378,063 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.94 | $2,152,378,063 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.94 | $2,152,378,063 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.94 | $2,152,378,063 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.94 | $2,152,377,687 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.94 | $2,152,377,687 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.94 | $2,152,377,687 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.94 | $2,152,377,687 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.94 | $2,152,420,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.85 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.85 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.85 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.85 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.85 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.90 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.89 | $2,140,086,942 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.89 | $2,138,181,686 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.89 | $2,138,181,686 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.89 | $2,138,181,686 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.94 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.94 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.94 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.88 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.88 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.88 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.88 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.65 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.65 | $2,146,209,987 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.65 | $2,146,432,209 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.65 | $2,146,432,209 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.65 | $2,146,432,209 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.65 | $2,144,543,320 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.73 | $2,144,543,320 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.73 | $2,144,543,320 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.73 | $2,144,543,320 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.73 | $2,144,543,320 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.76 | $2,145,121,897 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.76 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.74 | $2,144,826,214 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.