Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
REGENXBIO, Inc. (RGNX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.71+1.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RGNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash to fund operations into early 2027 | Regenxbio has a $150 million cash balance to fund operations into 2027. | Improving | cash balance falls below $100 million before early 2027 | Cash and cash equivalents: $36.487M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $150 million cash balance. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable36,487,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RGNX is a high-risk biotechnology development story, with its long-term case tied to advancing gene therapies rather than steady earnings. The thesis is currently intact, though evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
The evidence describes RGNX as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative; the valuation model has low confidence. Pricing is tagged as justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but this does not remove the risk tied to clinical and regulatory execution.
Near term, results may remain uneven: the latest quarter included a large milestone payment and a move to profit, while the company is still classified as loss-making. RGX-202 is on track and sura-vec is mixed; a possible guidance cut, the recent CEO transition, and litigation add uncertainty, and the risk rating has risen to high.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued clinical progress in RGX-202 and sura-vec, including anticipated pivotal sura-vec data in Q4 2026. Near-term guidance, regulatory and legal developments, and broader healthcare-sector results are key swing factors.
The multi-year view is intact, supported by program progress and recent milestone revenue, but remains high risk because earnings are uneven and important clinical, legal, and regulatory questions are unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is working to resolve FDA and GSK regulatory issues. |
| Under Pressure |
| FDA rejection or GSK dispute unresolved past 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In the meeting, the FDA reaffirmed that no additional studies of RGX-121 are required for the BLA resubmission.” “• REGENXBIO plans to resubmit the BLA in Q3 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stabilize and grow revenue after expected decline | A primary condition in REGENXBIO, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 10% YoY by FY27. | Improving | Revenue decline exceeds 10% YoY in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.54 → $-2.74 · observed estimates
$0.25B → $0.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.54 | $247,511,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.54 | $259,386,970 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.58 | $234,605,030 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.31 | $257,283,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.84 | $269,109,574 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.26 | $260,414,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.26 | $260,414,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.26 | $260,414,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.26 | $260,414,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.26 | $260,414,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.91 | $213,204,027 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.90 | $198,449,115 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.90 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.88 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.88 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.88 | $198,476,388 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.74 | $203,370,327 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.74 | $203,370,327 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.74 | $203,370,327 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.74 | $203,370,327 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.