Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc. (RGR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.50-0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.02 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest $30 million in capital expenditures in 2026 | A primary condition in Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 30 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $30 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $3.268M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 30 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 29, 20263,268,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an operating-improvement story, with earnings quality described as robust but management execution as volatile. The long-term thesis has turned mildly favorable, yet remains on watch because recent financial performance is below its industry cohort.
RGR is valued at a 1.34 premium versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the valuation leaves limited room for execution to disappoint. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not specify what growth or earnings the market assumes.
Near term, cost discipline and better factory throughput are showing progress: adjusted EBITDA margin reached 10.5% in Q2, net sales grew 19% year over year, and distributor sell-through also rose 19%. Capital spending is mixed against the full-year plan, and a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk; the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year view hinges on whether improved margins and capacity can continue as demand develops, while management follows through on planned investment. Near term, lower guidance or weaker results from sector bellwethers could weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength at those companies could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RGR’s improving operations support the thesis, but elevated risk, below-cohort performance, and an expensive peer valuation make continued execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects capital expenditures to total approximately $30 million for the year for continued investments in new product introductions, expanded capacity for product lines in greatest demand, upgraded manufacturing capabilities and strengthened facility infrastructure.” “As we've mentioned before, we expect capital expenditures to total approximately $30 million for the year.” Revenue was $147.626 million in 2026-Q3.
Management maintains stable leadership and improves execution | A supporting condition in Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership through 2027. | Improving | Further disruptive management changes or poor execution news | Q3 earnings beat vs stable leadership target Q3 earnings beat, manufacturing improvements, and FTC blocking Beretta board appointments support execution stability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about 2% revenue growth in 2027 | A primary condition in Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 2% in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98 → $2.02 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.98 | $567,549,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.02 | $584,824,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.02 | $584,824,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.02 | $593,121,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.