Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc. (RGR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.49+3.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-31
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The filing of this Report on Form 8-K will not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information in the Report that is required to be disclosed solely by Regulation FD. The text included as Exhibit 99.1 and the replay of the conference call and webcast on July 29, 2026, is available on our website located…
Why it matters: More accessory sales mean the company is growing. It shows they meet customer needs.
Supportive ifAccessory sales go up a lot, making at least 15% of total firearm sales.
Worry ifAccessory sales do not grow or drop as a part of total firearm sales.
Why it matters: If it works, this could make operations faster and increase profits.
Supportive ifKey metrics improve a lot, like EBITDA margin going over 12%.
Worry ifKey metrics stay the same or drop, with EBITDA margin below 10%.
Why it matters: Upgrades can improve efficiency and production capacity. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that at least one major upgrade has been completed by Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement says no big upgrades will be done by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: New products show that a company is innovating and staying relevant.
Supportive ifNew product sales exceed 30% of total firearm sales in Q3.
Worry ifNew product sales fall below 30% of total firearm sales in Q3.
Why it matters: The deal could help operations but may also bring ongoing costs that hurt profits.
Watch forCost cuts or better operations come from the Beretta deal. This is a positive sign.
Also watch forHigher costs or problems in operations are linked to the deal.
Why it matters: Hitting the spending target shows a focus on growth and better operations. It shows management can execute.
Supportive ifTotal spending reaches or goes over $30 million by year-end.
Worry ifSpending totals less than $20 million by year-end.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales and improve market position. Investors will look for updates on product launches.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new product launches by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new product announcements by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The success of the CAPEX plan is key for new products and manufacturing upgrades. This will impact future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress on the CAPEX plan. They will launch new products.
Worry ifManagement delays or cancels parts of the $30M CAPEX plan.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sales growth could signal weakening demand or operational issues. This would be a key indicator of the company's health.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 12% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth meets or exceeds 12% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growth in accessory sales is key to expanding products. It shows the company can innovate.
Supportive ifAccessory sales are up by at least 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifAccessory sales growth stays flat or goes down year-over-year.
Why it matters: Better production is important to meet strong demand. It will help reduce backorders.
Supportive ifProduction output increases a lot. This helps recover from Q1 disruptions.
Worry ifProduction output stays below what is needed to meet demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,879 loss on $10,000 · 38.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.