Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
RH (RH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.43-5.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.74 → 8.66 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow of $300M to $400M in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow is expected to improve to $300-$400 million in fiscal 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $300 million in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow: $99.578M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 300 to 400 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Sep 10, 202699,578,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RH is an execution-led consumer discretionary business, with a thesis that depends on stronger growth and margins rather than a clearly established durable growth pattern. The thesis is on watch: recent results have improved, but confidence has eased from high to medium and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with no major fragility signals, but RH trades at a 2.45 times premium to peers. The expectations gap is small at 0.02, though model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited.
Near term, revenue and operating income improved from Q1 to Q2, and management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook after a negative Q1 outlook. Margin guidance also improved, while free cash flow progress is mixed; erratic earnings surprises and a downward trend in surprises remain risks despite two recent earnings beats.
The multi-year thesis depends on RH sustaining revenue growth, improving margins, and turning its higher free cash flow guidance into cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD could shape the consumer discretionary backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, improving execution supports the long-term thesis, but elevated risk, mixed cash flow progress, and performance below the industry cohort leave important questions open. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is Stable or upward EPS revisions over next 2 quarters. |
| Broken |
| EPS estimates decline further over next 2 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted operating margin between 11.5% and 13.0% in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is 11.5% to 13.0%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 11.5% in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is >=3000 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026 | Revenue: $922.15M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3000 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Sep 10, 2026922,150,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.27 → $8.66 · observed estimates
$3.95B → $3.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.27 | $3,951,227,560 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.27 | $3,951,227,560 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.27 | $3,951,227,560 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.44 | $3,939,473,150 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.34 | $3,937,013,349 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.34 | $3,939,194,917 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.34 | $3,938,900,799 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.34 | $3,938,900,799 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.21 | $3,945,345,326 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.03 | $3,976,230,583 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.03 | $3,976,230,583 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.03 | $3,976,230,583 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.03 | $3,976,230,583 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.02 | $3,974,489,407 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.02 | $3,974,489,407 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.02 | $3,974,489,407 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.02 | $3,974,489,407 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.02 | $3,974,489,407 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.94 | $3,982,019,995 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.74 | $3,974,783,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.74 | $3,974,801,172 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.74 | $3,974,801,172 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.74 | $3,974,801,172 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.74 | $3,974,772,822 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.74 | $3,974,772,822 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.74 | $3,974,772,822 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.74 | $3,974,772,822 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.71 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.68 | $3,970,581,387 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.66 | $3,969,570,276 | 12 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.