RH (RH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$147.99+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
RH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-31
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 31, 2026, RH released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, which are available on the investor relations section of its website. Copies of the press release announcing the release of financial results and the financial results are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. RH is also disclosing that it may use the rh.com, restorationhardware.com, and ir…
Why it matters: A drop in margin guidance shows ongoing cost pressures. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifEBITDA margin guidance is under 14%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance is at or above 14%.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin shows good cost management and better operations. This is important for making money long-term.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin was 13.0% or higher for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin was below 11.5%. This shows ongoing pressure on margins.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning value to shareholders. Strong cash flow is a positive sign.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 falls below $75 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows better cash generation. This is vital for future investments and stability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $300M or higher for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow was below $200M. This shows problems with cash generation.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $588 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,504 loss on $10,000 · 55.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sandy Pilon's promotion shows focus on enhancing customer experience. This could improve brand loyalty.
Supportive ifSandy Pilon shared new plans to make customer experience better.
Worry ifSandy Pilon did not announce new plans to improve customer experience.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This would impact RH's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the last two quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows RH is on track with its growth plan. It confirms management's focus on increasing revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 4% or more compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 4%. This shows challenges in meeting growth goals.
Why it matters: Stable margins show good cost management. This is important for RH's financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 is now above 14%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 drops to below 11.5%.
Why it matters: Strong earnings would confirm RH's recovery and growth trajectory. It is a key indicator of financial health.
Supportive ifEarnings report shows revenue and profit growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a decline in revenue or profit compared to the previous quarter.