Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$123.49+1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RHP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RHP — capital allocation — CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALAN…
Dated 2026-08-25
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT. To the extent applicable, the information included above in
Why it matters: Higher ADR shows strong pricing power. It means more demand for Ryman's properties.
Supportive ifADR for future bookings increases above $310.
Worry ifADR for future bookings drops below $290.
Why it matters: Fewer room nights booked may show less demand for group events. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifGross Definite Room Nights booked falls below 460,000.
Less concerning ifGross Definite Room Nights booked stays above 460,000.
Why it matters: An increase would show management is confident in cash flow and wants to return value.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase to at least $1.25 per share.
Worry ifIf management keeps the dividend at $1.20 or lowers it, there are cash flow worries.
Why it matters: If Q3 revenue growth is above this level, it shows strong demand and good management.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $849 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 10%, suggesting a slowdown in demand.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,429 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates show demand trends and can affect revenue.
Watch forIn Q3, occupancy rates are over 75%, showing strong demand.
Also watch forOccupancy rates fall below 70%. This suggests that demand is getting weaker.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company controls costs and makes profits.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are important for revenue. A drop may mean weak demand, while a rise shows good performance.
Watch forOccupancy rates go up at properties. This shows strong demand and good marketing.
Also watch forOccupancy rates go down. This may mean issues with demand or competition.
Why it matters: Stable occupancy rates show high demand for hotel rooms. This helps revenue and profits.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates stay above 68% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fall below 65% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Guidance for adjusted FFO per share shows confidence in future earnings from the new deal.
Supportive ifManagement expects adjusted FFO per share for 2027 to be higher than now.
Worry ifManagement does not provide guidance or lowers adjusted FFO per share for 2027.
Why it matters: A share buyback can boost earnings per share and signal management's confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifThe share buyback leads to a noticeable increase in earnings per share in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifThe share buyback does not lead to an increase in earnings per share or stock price.
Why it matters: Closing this $1.38 billion deal would expand RHP's portfolio and boost earnings. It aligns with their growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes on time in Q3 2026 without any delays or issues.
Worry ifThe deal faces delays or fails to close due to regulatory or financial issues.
Why it matters: Good integration will show if the acquisition helps Ryman grow and make more money. Investors want to know if this property improves their market position.
Supportive ifManagement says customer feedback is good. Bookings at Grande Lakes Orlando increased in 6 months.
Worry ifIntegration problems happen. This leads to bad customer feedback or fewer bookings than expected.
Why it matters: More dividends show strong finances and a promise to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.20 per share in Q3.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Ryman wants to improve its properties. This can help future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says they will spend at least $400 million this quarter.
Worry ifIf spending is under $350 million, it means less money for property upgrades.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue and operating income are still growing. A strong report could boost confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in Hospitality shows strong demand. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifIn Q3, Hospitality segment revenue grew by over 6.5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 Hospitality segment revenue growth is less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline would signal weakening demand and could impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifSame-store group room night bookings decline year over year for two consecutive months.
Less concerning ifSame-store group room night bookings increase year over year for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: A drop in bookings may show lower demand. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifGroup room night bookings stay above 400,000 for Q2.
Less concerning ifGroup room night bookings fall below 400,000 for Q2.