Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.71-10.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.58 → 4.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RIGL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain net product sales of $255-$265 million in 2026 | It targets net product sales around $260 million. | Intact | Net product sales fall below $255 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RIGL is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong financial performance, but its earnings quality is fragile and risk remains elevated. The long-term thesis is intact, though consecutive earnings misses make confidence in delivery more limited.
The evidence describes RIGL as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative. The pricing fragility is rated low because weak execution quality is not paired with the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulence; model confidence is medium.
Near term, management has raised 2026 revenue guidance and recent quarterly revenue and product sales have advanced, supporting progress toward its stated goals. VEPPANU adds a new commercial effort, but its status is mixed, and the elevated risk of another earnings miss remains a concern.
The multi-year view hinges on delivering the raised 2026 revenue guidance and sustaining product sales growth, while establishing VEPPANU commercially. A guidance reversal would damage credibility; weakening jobs data could add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RIGL’s thesis rests on continued revenue execution and successful product expansion, with fragile earnings quality and miss risk as key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $275-$290 million. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $275 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $78.703M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $275-$290 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202678,703,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Develop and commercialize VEPPANU TM under exclusive global license | The company recently secured a global license for VEPPANU TM, expanding its product pipeline. | Intact | Failure to progress VEPPANU TM development or commercialization by end 2026 | Qualitative: Launch confirmed vs 2026 target August 2026 news reports Veppanu launch supports growth expectations and revenue guidance, confirming successful progression. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Upon close of the transaction, Rigel immediately initiated launch activities and expects VEPPANU to be commercially available in the United States for the treatment of second line-plus (2L+) ER+/HER2-, ESR1 -mutated mBC in mid-August 2026.” “The agreement became effective on June 11, 2026, and Rigel paid the upfront payment of $70.0 million to Arvinas and Pfizer in the second quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.78 → $4.58 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.78 | $330,902,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.78 | $330,902,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.78 | $330,902,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.59 | $339,190,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.59 | $339,190,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.59 | $339,190,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.83 | $339,190,950 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.59 | $339,190,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.59 | $339,190,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.48 | $355,760,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.39 | $358,380,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.18 | $358,372,499 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.58 | $372,828,299 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.