Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.71-10.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RIGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
RIGL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ma…
Why it matters: VEPPANU adds a new product, but its sales are outside the 2026 revenue guide. The first report can show launch progress and its cost.
Watch forRigel reports U.S. VEPPANU sales after its mid-August launch and gives a clear update on access or demand.
Also watch forRigel reports no U.S. VEPPANU sales, or says launch access or demand is delayed.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 revenue range. Q3 results will show whether sales and partner income support that goal.
Watch forQ3 revenue and updated full-year guidance keep revenue on track for $285M–$295M in 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts 2026 revenue guidance below $285M, or Q3 results make the range hard to reach.
Why it matters: TAVALISSE was Rigel's largest product in Q2, with sales up 18% year over year. Slower growth could weigh on product sales.
Watch forQ3 TAVALISSE sales grow year over year, after Q2 sales of $47.4M and 18% growth.
Also watch forQ3 TAVALISSE sales fall year over year, or growth slows sharply from Q2's 18%.
Why it matters: Rigel plans to pick a Phase 2 dose in the second half of 2026 and share early study data by year end. Timing and results will test progress.
Watch forRigel picks the Phase 2 dose in 2026 and shares dose expansion data by year end. The data show signs of activity and tolerable safety.
Also watch forDose selection or data release slips past 2026. Rigel reports safety or activity concerns that block Phase 2 plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $506 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,008 loss on $10,000 · 50.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash and short-term investments fell to $95.3M by June 30, from $155.0M at year-end. Further declines may limit room to fund growth and trials.
Worry ifCash and short-term investments fall below $95.3M in the next report, with added borrowing or a need for new funding.
Less concerning ifCash stays at or above $95.3M, and Rigel remains profitable while funding its launch and studies.