Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.67+0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RIGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RIGL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ma…
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth picks up, it could help Rigel's performance. This would show a stronger market.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth stays below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal is important for investor trust and financial health.
Watch forTotal revenues for Q2 are reported between $275 million and $290 million.
Also watch forTotal revenues for Q2 fall below $275 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows Rigel is growing. It also shows their products are selling well.
Supportive ifTotal revenues reach or exceed $285 million for 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $285 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining this sales level is crucial for Rigel's financial health and growth.
Supportive ifNet product sales reach or exceed $255 million in 2026.
Worry ifNet product sales fall below $255 million in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $552 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,008 loss on $10,000 · 50.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on VEPPANU TM is crucial for Rigel's growth. Successful development can boost future sales.
Supportive ifA major step in VEPPANU TM development or sales has been announced.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in VEPPANU TM development.
Why it matters: This data could show R289's potential and affect Rigel's future plans.
Supportive ifPreliminary data from the R289 study is shared by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo preliminary data is released by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This revenue figure is crucial to stay on track for the 2026 guidance of $275-$290 million.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q2 2026 are reported at or above $69.2 million.
Worry ifTotal revenues for Q2 2026 fall below $69.2 million.
Why it matters: Progress on VEPPANU TM will show if Rigel can grow its product offerings and revenue.
Supportive ifThere is news about a partnership or clinical trial results for VEPPANU TM.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the development timeline for VEPPANU TM.
Why it matters: The launch of VEPPANU will add to Rigel's cancer treatment products. Success could raise revenues a lot.
Supportive ifVEPPANU is commercially available in the U.S. by mid-August 2026.
Worry ifVEPPANU launch is delayed beyond mid-August 2026.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment will be a key step in advancing Rigel's pipeline. It could lead to selecting a Phase 2 dose by year-end.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the Phase 1b study of R289 is completed in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is not completed by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net product sales shows strong market demand. This will help revenue plans.
Supportive ifQ3 net product sales increase year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 net product sales decline or grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance will show that Rigel is on track to meet its financial goals.
Watch forRigel expects total revenues of about $285 to $295 million for 2026.
Also watch forRigel lowers its total revenue guidance from $285 to $295 million.