Reading RILY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RILY free→Reading RILY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RILY free→NASDAQFinancialsFinancial ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 79% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.72 RILY trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $81 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 66%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$307.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$845.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,060.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RILY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
or its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed May 7, 2026, exceeds 5% of the Company’s total number of shares of common stock (“Common Stock”) outstanding as of May 5, 2026. On May 14, 2026 and June 4, 2026, the Company issued shares of Common Stock in privately negotiated transactions (together, the “ 3(a)(9) Exchanges ”) that were not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “ Securities Act ”). On May 14, 2026, the Company agreed to issue 1,129,918 shares of Common Stock to DBA Tradin…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RILY BRC, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -57.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to improve EPS through strategic financial management and operational efficiency.