Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. (RIOT)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.76-3.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RIOT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex remains near or below $214 million in H1 2026 | A supporting condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=214 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Capex exceeds $214 million in H1 2026 | Capital expenditures: $60.731M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=214 USD_MILLIONS. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 10, 202660,731,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a developing data-center growth story and continued Bitcoin mining exposure. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence describes valuation as justified, with a 3.0 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, meaning measured expectations appear to exceed what the model supports. Confidence in that valuation view is low, and the potential value tied to future data-center growth adds uncertainty.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a 56% estimated chance of a miss, and the company has missed in recent quarters. Revenue increased year over year and Bitcoin production rose, but data-center revenue fell quarter to quarter and mining costs increased. Management has advanced data-center leasing commitments, while execution and cost control remain important uncertainties.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on RIOT maintaining guidance, improving financial performance, and turning its data-center commitments into sustained revenue. A guidance cut or continued earnings misses would add pressure to the business outlook; delivery on leasing plans and better control of mining costs would strengthen the multi-year case.
For a 1-to-3-year view, RIOT combines meaningful data-center expansion plans with weak recent performance, elevated earnings risk, and low-confidence valuation evidence. The long-term thesis remains in watch status and depends on execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0 USD. |
| Broken |
| Net income remains below -$500 million by end 2026 |
Net income: $4.034M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 20264,034,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating cash flow improves from -$182.7 million in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -100 USD_MILLIONS. | Improving | Operating cash flow remains below -$182.7 million by end 2026 | Cash from operations: $-90.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -100 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 10, 2026-90,136,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $311 million by FY26 | A primary condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=311 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Revenue falls below $180 million in FY26 | Revenue: $181.426M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=311 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 2026181,426,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.70 → $-1.23 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.70 | $785,329,620 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.80 | $780,190,680 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.80 | $780,190,680 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.80 | $780,190,680 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.80 | $780,190,680 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.70 | $780,190,680 | 3 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.83 | $787,440,542 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.83 | $787,440,542 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.71 | $776,950,940 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.83 | $790,718,319 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.14 | $800,473,971 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.14 | $791,196,193 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.18 | $786,185,867 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.18 | $786,185,867 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.18 | $786,185,867 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.18 | $786,185,867 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.25 | $779,416,574 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.25 | $779,416,469 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.25 | $779,496,450 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.25 | $779,496,450 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.25 | $779,496,450 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.23 | $785,539,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.23 | $785,539,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.23 | $785,539,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.23 | $785,539,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.23 | $785,169,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.23 | $785,169,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.23 | $785,169,733 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.21 | $788,626,533 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.21 | $788,626,533 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.19 | $779,981,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.19 | $779,981,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.22 | $774,026,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.22 | $774,026,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.22 | $774,026,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.22 | $774,026,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.23 | $774,791,453 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.23 | $774,791,453 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.23 | $774,791,453 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.23 | $774,791,453 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.23 | $774,791,453 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.23 | $769,961,453 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.23 | $769,961,453 | 9 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.