RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. (RIOT)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.80+3.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RIOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers
RIOT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Riot Platforms, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, the “ Company ”) issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) announcing an update on the Company’s business and financial results and results of operations for the three months ended June 30, 2026 . The Company also published on its website , www.riotplatforms.com, under the “Investor Relations” tab a presentation providing, among other things, an update on…
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may hurt RIOT's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: Updates on this lease may show if revenue can stay steady and grow.
Supportive ifThe plan is to deliver the first 96 MW by December 2027.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the lease timeline.
Why it matters: Stable or rising data center revenue shows Riot can manage its new contracts well.
Supportive ifQ3 data center revenue increases year over year from $23.2 million in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 data center revenue declines further from $23.2 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in Data Center revenue shows that Riot can grow its business.
Supportive ifData Center revenue for Q2 2026 is over $35 million. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifData Center revenue for Q2 2026 is below $30 million, signaling weak demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$331 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $899 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,857 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher costs may hurt profits and efficiency in mining.
Worry ifAverage cost to mine bitcoin decreases from $49,912 in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAverage cost to mine bitcoin increases beyond $49,912.
Why it matters: Getting the AMD expansion done on time is important for making more money. It also helps build trust.
Supportive ifCompletion of the 10 MW Phase 3 expansion by November 2026 as scheduled.
Worry ifDelay in the Phase 3 expansion beyond the November 2026 target.
Why it matters: More expansion would show Riot can attract good tenants. This would help drive growth.
Supportive ifAMD announced a new expansion beyond the current 50 MW capacity.
Worry ifNo new announcements from AMD about capacity expansion. This may mean stagnation.
Why it matters: Bitcoin production affects revenue. A drop in production may show problems.
Worry ifBitcoin production in Q2 is less than 1,473 bitcoins produced in Q1.
Less concerning ifIn Q2, Bitcoin production is over 1,473 bitcoins. This shows strong operations.
Why it matters: Lower mining costs would help make more money. This is important for cash flow.
Supportive ifAverage cost to mine bitcoin reported below $44,000.
Worry ifThe average cost to mine bitcoin was above $45,000. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: A reduction in net losses would indicate progress in financial performance. This is vital for restoring investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income was less than -$400 million. This shows losses are getting smaller.
Worry ifNet income was worse than -$600 million. This shows bigger financial problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money.
Watch forEarnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow would signal better management of expenses and operations. This is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow was less than -$150 million. This shows better cash management.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was worse than -$200 million. This shows more problems with cash management.
Why it matters: More Bitcoin production means better efficiency. It also shows a stronger market position.
Supportive ifBitcoin production exceeds 1,600 in Q3, up from 1,587 in Q2.
Worry ifBitcoin production falls below 1,587 in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue exceeds this target, it shows strong growth. It also supports management's focus on revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was above $180 million. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $167 million. This shows a decline or no growth.