Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$395.27-0.26%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $395.27. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $395 RL trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $327 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $405–$511. Note: our $327 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($405–$511). Not investment advice.
$405.00 – $511.00 (median $439.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-23
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 72% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 23.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $12.89/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $439.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $509.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $543.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $62.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $130.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $368.28 | 13.9 | 25.83 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $233.80 | 19.5 | 12.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $384.10 | 23.2 | 16.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $272.04 | 2.1 | 130.46 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $890.33 | 53.7 | 16.58 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $95.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $366.50 | 22.1 | 16.58 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $377.07 | 23.2 | 16.28 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $355.58 | 19.5 | 18.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $484.71 | 23.2 | 20.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $311.27 | 2.1 | 149.27 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1123.54 | 53.7 | 20.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $462.49 | 22.1 | 20.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $470.25 | 19.5 | 24.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $504.29 | 23.2 | 21.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $323.84 | 2.1 | 155.30 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1168.93 | 53.7 | 21.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $481.18 | 22.1 | 21.77 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.