Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Relay Therapeutics, Inc. (RLAY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.00-5.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RLAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance zovegalisib plus atirmociclib into Phase 3 trials for PI3Kα-mutated breast cancer | Relay Therapeutics is advancing its drug zovegalisib to Phase 3 trials for breast cancer. | Improving | Phase 3 development not initiated by 2026-Q4 | Phase 3 not yet initiated vs target by 2026-Q4 May 2026 news highlights Phase 2 data and capital raises; no Phase 3 start reported by Nov 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, where the long-term thesis depends on successful drug development rather than established earnings. The thesis state is watch: management has continued advancing key trials, but recent financial performance remains weak.
The valuation model describes RLAY as expensive versus peers, with optionality driving the difference and a negative expectations gap. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not specify precisely which future outcomes the market assumes.
Near term, continued trial work is likely to keep costs high; the company reported $3.0 million in revenue and net losses around $73 million in 2026-Q1. Management has reiterated plans for Phase 3 work, including a frontline trial planned for early 2027, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort. Guidance cuts and weakening employment data are risks, although recent earnings were reported in line.
The multi-year thesis hinges on progress in zovegalisib trials, including the planned Phase 3 frontline study and development for vascular anomalies. Early data include a 60% volumetric response rate in the Phase 2 ReInspire trial and a 44% objective response rate in heavily pre-treated patients, but the evidence provided does not establish later-stage outcomes. Near term, guidance and broader healthcare-sector results are key swing factors.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RLAY remains a high-risk, loss-making development story with clinical progress supporting the thesis but weak financial performance and uncertain trial outcomes limiting confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““This quarter, we are very pleased by the pace of enrollment of our ReDiscover-2 trial for second-line breast cancer and also look forward to sharing updated ReInspire data for vascular anomalies at ASH.” “The company expects its current cash, cash equivalents, and investments will be sufficient to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into 2029.” Operating income was $-90.245 million in 2026-Q3.
Increase revenue streams above $3 million quarterly | A primary condition in Relay Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly revenue above $5 million by 2026-Q4. | Broken | Quarterly revenue remains below $3 million by 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $350,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly revenue above $5 million by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026350,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage operating losses near negative $78.6 million in 2026-Q1 | The company aims to manage operating losses near negative $78.6 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Operating loss worsens beyond negative $80 million next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-90.245M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss no worse than negative $80 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026-90,245,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.64 → $-1.61 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.64 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.61 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.61 | $14,501,100 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.64 | $16,968,010 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.60 | $15,990,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.62 | $18,813,869 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.62 | $17,912,714 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.62 | $17,910,408 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.61 | $19,541,142 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.61 | $19,538,627 | 9 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.