Relay Therapeutics, Inc. (RLAY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.04+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RLAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RLAY — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.2, of this Current Report on Form 8-K is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Enrollment shows strong interest in zovegalisib for blood vessel problems. This shows commitment.
Supportive ifManagement says enrollment is still going on for the ReInspire trial expansion groups.
Worry ifEnrollment stops or goes down. This suggests problems in getting patients.
Why it matters: Cash levels will indicate the company's ability to fund ongoing trials and operations. A strong cash position supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCash and investments stay above $600 million after Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash levels drop below $600 million, raising worries about funding.
Why it matters: Understanding the cash position is key for funding ongoing trials. A strong runway supports continued development.
Supportive ifCash and equivalents reported at or above $642 million.
Worry ifCash and equivalents are below $600 million.
Why it matters: This trial is crucial for zovegalisib's approval in breast cancer. Positive results could lead to faster market access.
Supportive ifThe ReDiscover-2 trial shows a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 11 months or better.
Worry ifPFS results are much lower than expected. This shows poor effectiveness.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $524 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,815 loss on $10,000 · 28.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will guide the Phase 3 trial for zovegalisib. Good feedback could speed up development.
Supportive ifThe FDA liked the Phase 3 trial design for zovegalisib.
Worry ifFDA raises major concerns or asks for big changes to the trial design.
Why it matters: Maintaining financial health is crucial for ongoing clinical trials. Strong cash flow supports development efforts.
Watch forCash and investments are over $600 million. This supports operations until 2029.
Also watch forCash reserves fall below $600 million. This raises worries about funding.
Why it matters: Progress in this trial could grow Relay's pipeline. It may also boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarly results from the Phase 1/2 trial show good effects in NRAS-mutant solid tumors.
Worry ifEarly results show no major effects or safety issues in the trial.
Why it matters: The company's cash affects its ability to pay for ongoing trials. Strong cash helps development.
Supportive ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments rise a lot after the recent debt issuance.
Worry ifCash reserves drop or stay the same. This raises worries about funding future operations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Relay Therapeutics makes more money. Investors want to see signs of recovery or more losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses or a way to make money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses getting bigger or no clear way to make money.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Relay's performance. This could indicate a better environment for biotech firms.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 10%.
Why it matters: Losing more money shows worse financial health. This can hurt investor trust and funding.
Worry ifOperating losses are over $78.59M in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating losses drop or stay below $78.59M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New data from the ReInspire trial could impact the outlook for zovegalisib. Positive results may boost investor sentiment.
Watch forPositive news from the ReInspire trial shows zovegalisib works well.
Also watch forBad news from the ReInspire trial shows safety or effectiveness issues.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how well zovegalisib helps patients with vascular problems. Good results could increase trust in the drug.
Supportive ifInitial clinical data shows a response rate of 60% or more in the ReInspire trial.
Worry ifVolumetric response rate falls below 50% in the initial data from the ReInspire trial.
Why it matters: Maintaining a strong cash position is vital for funding ongoing trials and operations. It reflects financial health.
Watch forCash and equivalents are over $642 million. This shows strong financial health.
Also watch forCash reserves fall below $600 million. This raises worries about funding.
Why it matters: Starting this trial would show commitment to advancing zovegalisib for frontline breast cancer treatment. It could lead to new treatment options.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 trial is initiated by early 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe trial is delayed or not initiated by early 2027.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would signal continued struggles to grow. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $3M.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $3M.