Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RLI Corp. (RLI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.91+3.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.75 → 2.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $250 million share repurchase program and maintain dividends | It pays steady dividends and is buying back $250 million in shares. | Intact | Buyback program is not executed or dividends are cut | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RLI is an insurer with a durable-growth profile, supported by disciplined underwriting and capital returns. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality and management assessments remain neutral.
RLI trades at a 2.0-times premium to peers, with a durable premium identified as the main reason. The valuation is tagged as justified, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the model supports; confidence in that estimate is medium.
Near-term results have been strong, including an 86.2 combined ratio and $58.8 million in underwriting income in 2026-Q3. Management is on track with disciplined underwriting and capital returns, while the direct financial evidence for investments in expertise and relationships is limited. Near-term miss risk is low, but a prior deep miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain watch points.
The multi-year thesis depends on RLI sustaining profitable underwriting and its recent strong performance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling interest rates could weigh on the Financials sector; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued underwriting discipline and execution, with strong recent results balanced by valuation expectations and risks from guidance or the rate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in RLI Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.74. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $2.74 for FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.74. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 20260.88 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 3% annually | A primary condition in RLI Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: -6.34% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 2026-6.342683 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.78 → $2.80 · observed estimates
$1.88B → $2.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.78 | $1,883,360,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.73 | $1,896,920,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.73 | $1,896,920,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.70 | $1,912,690,500 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.70 | $1,912,690,500 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.70 | $1,945,991,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.75 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.74 | $2,193,101,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.76 | $2,174,564,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.80 | $2,170,924,500 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.80 | $2,170,924,500 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.80 | $2,157,887,500 | 6 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.