RLI Corp. (RLI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.40-2.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
RLI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 13, 2026, RLI Corp. (“RLI”) a nnounced that its Board of Directors approved a regular quarterly dividend on its common stock of $0.18 per share. The dividend is payable on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 31, 2026. Furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference is a copy of the press release issued by RLI announcing the dividend.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means worse underwriting performance. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 combined ratio is over 86. This shows possible underwriting problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 combined ratio is 86 or lower. This shows stable underwriting performance.
Why it matters: Growth in the Casualty segment shows strong market demand. It also shows good pricing.
Supportive ifCasualty segment premium growth reported above 10% in Q3.
Worry ifCasualty segment premium growth was under 10%. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Changes in premium growth rates can show market conditions and RLI's position in the market.
Watch forProperty segment reports a premium growth rate above 5% in the next quarter.
Also watch forProperty segment reports a premium decline greater than 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level mean less profit. This could raise worries about future growth.
Worry ifQ3 operating earnings were below $0.80 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating earnings reported at or above $0.80 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,795 loss on $10,000 · 28.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show how the company is doing and its outlook.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results and positive outlook.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak results and negative outlook.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may show less demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifRLI reports revenue growth below the sector median of 13% in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRLI maintains revenue growth above the sector median of 13% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Slower growth in investment income may show problems in the investment portfolio.
Worry ifInvestment income growth was below 15%.
Less concerning ifInvestment income growth remains at or above 15%.
Why it matters: A drop in underwriting income may show problems in RLI's growth strategy.
Worry ifUnderwriting income was below $59 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifUnderwriting income remains at or above $59 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A big rise in investment income would help profit and show good capital management.
Supportive ifNet investment income increases by more than 20% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet investment income increases by less than 20% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Making money from underwriting is key for RLI's long-term success in a tough market.
Watch forCombined ratio is below 85. This shows strong underwriting performance.
Also watch forThe combined ratio is over 90. This may mean there are problems in underwriting.
Why it matters: Using AI could make underwriting more efficient. This may improve overall results.
Supportive ifManagement says AI tools help with underwriting. This change can be measured.
Worry ifNo big improvements in underwriting efficiency are seen. This is despite spending on AI.
Why it matters: Making money in Casualty is important for RLI's financial health and growth.
Supportive ifThe Casualty segment reports a combined ratio below 95 in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe Casualty segment's combined ratio is above 100. This means there are underwriting losses.
Why it matters: Progress on this program shows management wants to return money to shareholders. It shows confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress on the $250 million share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays have been reported for the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Slower growth in gross premiums may mean less demand. It could also mean more competition.
Worry ifGross premiums grow less than 3% in Q3. This shows possible market challenges.
Less concerning ifGross premiums grow at or above 3% in Q3, reflecting strong market demand.
Why it matters: If RLI finishes the repurchase program, it shows confidence in its finances. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifRLI finishes a large part of the $250 million share repurchase program.
Worry ifRLI does not complete the share repurchase program as planned. This shows possible issues with capital allocation.
Why it matters: Changes in the AM Best rating can affect RLI's reputation. It can also change its position in the insurance market.
Watch forAM Best upgrades RLI's rating to A++, indicating strong financial strength.
Also watch forAM Best lowers RLI's rating. This shows possible worries about financial stability.