Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.72+1.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.03 → 0.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RLJ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations recovers above $26M quarterly | Cash flow from operations is a focus despite recent declines. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $26M quarterly | Cash from operations: $114.602M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26M quarterly cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026114,602,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RLJ is a hotel real estate business with a recovery-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear, steady compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent results and management execution have improved, while recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence describes RLJ as cheap versus peers, but also says the market’s expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The overall pricing signal is justified, with low fragility, so the valuation evidence does not give a clear signal that expectations are unusually easy or stretched.
Near term, comparable Hotel EBITDA has grown in both reported quarters, and management raised full-year EBITDA and adjusted FFO per share guidance in Q2. Recent earnings results were positive, but the miss-risk assessment is quiet rather than absent, and a guidance reversal would damage credibility.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued EBITDA growth from renovations, conversions, and portfolio strength, alongside delivery against raised guidance. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness among hotel peers could remove a sector tailwind; a guidance cut after the recent increase is a key unfavorable scenario.
RLJ’s long-term thesis has better operating evidence than it did a few months ago, but the industry-relative performance gap and low-confidence valuation signals leave execution as the main test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in RLJ Lodging Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $324M EBITDA in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EBITDA falls below $324M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Robust revenue growth and disciplined expense management drove year-over-year Comparable Hotel EBITDA growth of 17.5% and Comparable Hotel EBITDA margin expansion of 190 basis points, contributing to Adjusted EBITDA growth of 17.3% over the prior year period.” “This strong top line performance drove Comparable Hotel EBITDA growth of 7.1% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 6.1% over the prior year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per share | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.15 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.15 in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividends The Company’s Board of Trustees declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per common share of beneficial interest of the Company in the third quarter.” “Dividends The Company’s Board of Trustees declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per common share of beneficial interest of the Company in the second quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $0.04 · observed estimates
$1.41B → $1.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $1,406,873,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $1,410,400,470 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | $1,410,400,511 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.07 | $1,419,686,000 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.07 | $1,419,686,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.07 | $1,420,494,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.07 | $1,419,796,544 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.06 | $1,419,971,612 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.06 | $1,419,971,612 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.03 | $1,421,413,987 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.03 | $1,423,130,767 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.04 | $1,425,204,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.04 | $1,425,204,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.04 | $1,425,204,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.04 | $1,425,204,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.04 | $1,425,204,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.04 | $1,426,193,090 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.04 | $1,426,193,090 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.04 | $1,426,193,090 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.04 | $1,426,193,090 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.04 | $1,426,193,090 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.04 | $1,427,071,490 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.04 | $1,427,071,490 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.04 | $1,427,071,490 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.04 | $1,427,071,490 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.04 | $1,426,878,760 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.04 | $1,426,878,760 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.04 | $1,426,878,760 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.04 | $1,430,830,795 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.04 | $1,432,474,562 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.