RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.72+1.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RLJ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RLJ — debt issuance
Dated 2026-02-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), RLJ Lodging Trust (the “Company”), as parent guarantor, and RLJ Lodging Trust, L.P., the Company’s operating partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), as borrower, entered into a Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“Wells Fargo”), as administrative agent, and the other lenders party thereto. The Amended Credit Agreement a…
Why it matters: Adjusted FFO per share rose 8.3% in Q2. A lower quarter result would weaken evidence of continued earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted FFO per diluted share and unit is below $0.52.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted FFO per diluted share and unit is at least $0.52 and grows year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 RevPAR grew 6.8%, and RLJ raised its full-year growth outlook. Another strong quarter would support that trend.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable RevPAR growth is above 4.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable RevPAR growth is below 3.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Hotel EBITDA grew 7.1% in Q2. A drop below that quarter's level could signal weaker hotel earnings.
Worry ifQ3 hotel EBITDA is below $119.5 million, the level reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 Comparable Hotel EBITDA is at least $119.5 million and grows year over year.
Why it matters: RLJ paid a $0.15 common dividend in both Q1 and Q2. Another payment at that level would confirm the recent pattern.
Supportive ifRLJ declares and pays a Q3 common dividend of at least $0.15 per share.
Worry ifRLJ declares a Q3 common dividend below $0.15 per share or skips it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector signal points to slowing growth and margins near -3%. RLJ's hotel margin rose 10 basis points in Q2.
Watch forRLJ's Q3 comparable Hotel EBITDA margin is higher than 31.3% a year ago.
Also watch forRLJ's Q3 comparable Hotel EBITDA margin falls year over year from 31.3%.
Why it matters: RLJ raised its 2026 Adjusted FFO range in Q2. A later cut would challenge the view that strong demand will continue.
Worry ifRLJ cuts the 2026 Adjusted FFO per diluted share range below $1.37 to $1.50.
Less concerning ifRLJ keeps or raises the $1.37 to $1.50 range in its next update.