Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.66-6.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.39 → 1.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RNGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow above $25 million in 2025 | The company aims to generate free cash flow above $25 million in 2025. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY25 | Free cash flow: $20M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=25.8 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 28, 202620,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RNGR is an energy-sector growth and execution story, supported by expanding its ECHO hybrid rig fleet and integrating the AWS acquisition. Its multi-year view is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though the near-term earnings outlook carries elevated risk.
The valuation evidence points to RNGR being cheap versus peers, with a slightly negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear modest relative to the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, and fragility is low because the evidence cites a turbulent sector regime rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Near-term results may remain uneven: RNGR has a run of earnings misses, and the estimated risk of another next-quarter miss is elevated. At the same time, revenue and Adjusted EBITDA increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while management has continued investing in ECHO expansion and AWS integration. Management priorities are on track, but the evidence on future execution is limited.
The thesis hinges on continued delivery from the AWS integration and ECHO fleet expansion, alongside the company’s ability to respond to changing U.S. activity. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative. Results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as SLB, BKR, and HAL may also signal whether the energy-sector tailwind continues or fades.
For the 1-to-3-year view, RNGR’s recent operating progress keeps the long-term thesis intact, while near-term earnings risk and a changing sector backdrop are key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ranger Energy Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain readiness to adapt to U.S. activity changes. |
| Improving |
| Management fails to adjust operations as U.S. activity changes |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 11% in FY26 | A primary condition in Ranger Energy Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.44 → $1.39 · observed estimates
$0.69B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.44 | $688,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.31 | $669,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.31 | $669,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.44 | $688,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.31 | $669,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.29 | $684,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.29 | $698,566,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.39 | $725,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.39 | $735,233,333 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.