Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.78-0.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RNGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RNGR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
OF THIS CURRENT REPORT, INCLUDING EXHIBIT 99.1 ATTACHED HERETO, SHALL NOT BE DEEMED “FILED” FOR THE PURPOSES OF SECTION 18 OF THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, NOR SHALL IT BE DEEMED INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE INTO ANY REGISTRATION STATEMENT OR OTHER FILING PURSUANT TO THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, EXCEPT AS x OTHERWISE x EXPRESSLY x STATED x IN x SUCH x FILING. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be…
Why it matters: Changes in activity levels will impact Ranger's growth and response plans.
Supportive ifManagement says U.S. activity levels will rise in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement says U.S. activity levels will fall in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Negative Free Cash Flow raises worries about financial health and how money is spent.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported as negative for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow is positive, showing strong cash generation.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Ranger is doing financially. This may affect how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: A steady or better margin shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the Adjusted EBITDA margin is over 16%. This is lower than the Q2 margin of 16.2%.
Worry ifIn Q3, the Adjusted EBITDA margin is below 16%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,086 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong Free Cash Flow shows good efficiency. It also helps support returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow in Q3 exceeds $20 million, indicating strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow drops below $15 million. This suggests problems in operations or the market.
Why it matters: More capital returns show good cash flow management. They also show commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThere may be more share buybacks or dividend increases beyond $0.06 per share.
Worry ifNo news on capital returns may mean cash flow issues.
Why it matters: If EBITDA goes above this figure, it shows good performance. It also shows effective cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $30 million. This shows good performance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was below $25 million. This suggests operational problems or high costs.
Why it matters: Stabilizing Wireline revenue is key for profits. It shows that operations are improving.
Supportive ifWireline revenue is stable or growing compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifWireline revenue drops again in Q3. This shows ongoing operational problems.
Why it matters: If revenue goes over this mark, it shows strong demand. It also shows good integration of AWS and STEP.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $180 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $170 million. This may show integration problems or low demand.
Why it matters: Changes in U.S. activity levels can directly affect Ranger's revenue. This is a key area for growth.
Watch forU.S. activity levels increase, leading to higher revenue for Ranger.
Also watch forU.S. activity levels decline, causing revenue to drop further.
Why it matters: New contracts would show demand for Ranger's new rig technology and help growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new ECHO rig contracts with major customers.
Worry ifNo new ECHO rig contracts in the next quarter show weak market interest.
Why it matters: A return to revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the energy sector. This could improve Ranger's market position and investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for Ranger Energy Services exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show weaker demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 10% compared to Q2 2026 revenue of $176.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth over 10% shows strong demand.
Why it matters: The capital returns program is a key priority. Changes could signal management's confidence in future cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase the dividend or share buyback program.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend or stops the buyback program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. They also want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks of over 200,000 shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were announced in Q3. This may show cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show shifts in how money is used and financial health.
Watch forIncrease in quarterly dividend above $0.06 per share.
Also watch forA cut or stop of the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: The energy sector is in a mature phase. Signs of revenue growth could indicate a positive shift.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth picks back up, indicating a shift back to growth.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is flat or down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: This acquisition will improve Ranger's coiled tubing services. It can also boost revenue and EBITDA.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close around September 11, 2026. All needed approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close due to unmet closing conditions or lack of required consents.
Why it matters: If Wireline revenue stays steady, it means recovery. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifWireline revenue is over $12 million. This shows recovery from recent drops.
Worry ifWireline revenue drops below $10 million. This shows ongoing problems in that area.
Why it matters: Using ECHO rigs well could improve margins and market position. This shows growth potential.
Supportive ifECHO rigs are entering the field as planned. This will help revenue.
Worry ifThere are delays with ECHO rig use or problems that hurt performance.