Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RenaissanceRe (RNR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
$354.23+0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
41.18 → 42.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RNR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
dividend per share stable near $0.41 | The company keeps dividends stable near $0.41 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.40 | Dividend per share: $0.41 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $0.40. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20260.41 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a reinsurer with earnings tied to underwriting, fees, and investment income, so its business setup is mixed rather than a clear growth or turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent execution is uneven across business segments.
RNR is cheap versus peers, and the valuation evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility. Confidence in the valuation model is low, so the cheap-versus-peers reading is uncertain rather than conclusive.
Near-term results have been mixed: property combined ratios remained strong through the first three quarters of 2026, while casualty and specialty ratios worsened. Third-quarter underwriting and fee income were lower than in the second quarter, while investment income was higher; recent earnings beats provide a positive counterpoint, but a guidance cut is a key risk.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on disciplined underwriting improving or stabilizing casualty and specialty results while property remains strong. It also depends on continued earnings contributions from underwriting, fees, and investments, with sector results and interest-rate conditions as additional factors.
For a 1 to 3 year view, RNR’s thesis remains intact, but the evidence points to mixed execution rather than consistently strong delivery. The main test is whether weaker casualty results stop worsening while earnings remain diversified. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in RenaissanceRe's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.57 for FY 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $6.57 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-4.02 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.57 for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 28, 2026-4.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
cash from operations at least $688M in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations grew strongly from $158M to $688M. | Under Pressure | cash from operations falls below $158M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $794.501M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $688M cash from operations in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026794,501,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
net income growth to at least $293M in Q1 2026 | RenaissanceRe is improving profits with net income rising from $170M to $293M in one year. | Under Pressure | net income falls below $170M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-152.541M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $293M net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026-152,541,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$38.86 → $42.41 · observed estimates
$8.81B → $7.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $38.86 | $8,808,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $39.01 | $8,493,052,669 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $39.01 | $8,493,052,669 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $39.01 | $8,001,300,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $39.01 | $8,001,300,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $39.84 | $8,062,579,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $41.06 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $41.06 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $41.06 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $39.68 | $8,062,579,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $39.68 | $8,062,579,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $39.68 | $8,062,579,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $41.09 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $41.12 | $7,942,030,976 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $41.12 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $41.16 | $7,944,345,551 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $41.23 | $7,889,113,037 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $41.18 | $7,889,113,037 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $41.18 | $7,889,113,037 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $41.18 | $7,889,113,037 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $41.21 | $7,889,113,037 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $41.42 | $7,906,240,129 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $41.43 | $7,906,240,129 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $41.47 | $7,906,240,129 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $41.47 | $7,906,240,129 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $41.48 | $7,872,376,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $41.48 | $7,872,376,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $41.66 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $41.70 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $41.70 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $41.70 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $41.70 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $41.73 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $41.97 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $42.02 | $7,872,376,741 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $42.06 | $7,803,515,150 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $42.17 | $7,730,814,983 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $42.31 | $7,627,694,780 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $42.49 | $7,683,843,298 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $42.41 | $7,646,850,817 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.