Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Roku Inc (ROKU)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$160.37-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.93 → 4.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ROKU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $675 million | The company targets adjusted EBITDA of $675 million, up from $395 million in 2025. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $500 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business working toward stronger profitability, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial strength and stable management, but earnings quality remains limited by losses.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, and it rose recently; the evidence also shows ROKU at a premium versus peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with fundamentals, though the estimated gap is small and model confidence is low.
Near term, recent results and management execution point to continued platform growth and progress toward the 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals. A guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, while the broader sector backdrop is a headwind; a recent litigation filing adds uncertainty, but the evidence does not detail its possible effects.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining double-digit platform growth and delivering the stated 2026 revenue and profitability goals. A guidance cut could weaken confidence, while rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, ROKU combines strong recent execution with ongoing losses and a stretched valuation, so delivery on growth and profitability remains central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Roku Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= 51%. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 43.18% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 51%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202643.176731 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Platform revenue grows 18% YoY to $4.89B | A primary condition in Roku Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.89 billion. | Intact | Platform revenue growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26 | Platform Segment unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Platform Segment revenue: $2.197B in FY2025-Q4. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Feb 13, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total net revenue rises to $5.5 billion | Total net revenue is expected to rise to $5.5 billion in 2026. | Intact | Total net revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.69 → $4.17 · observed estimates
$6.25B → $6.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,170 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,650 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,650 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,650 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.61 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.61 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.61 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.62 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.62 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,650 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.62 | $6,248,599,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.69 | $6,254,520,650 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.69 | $6,262,340,350 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.92 | $6,290,776,560 | 9 / 27 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.62 | $6,248,600,222 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.82 | $6,313,625,713 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.82 | $6,318,893,735 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.82 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.81 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.81 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.81 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.80 | $6,317,207,845 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.80 | $6,315,656,159 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.80 | $6,315,656,159 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.82 | $6,311,695,636 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.82 | $6,311,695,636 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.84 | $6,316,473,677 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.88 | $6,333,299,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.93 | $6,337,315,782 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.93 | $6,347,199,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.93 | $6,347,199,993 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.93 | $6,347,199,533 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.93 | $6,347,199,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.93 | $6,347,199,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.93 | $6,347,249,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.93 | $6,347,249,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.93 | $6,347,249,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.93 | $6,347,249,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.93 | $6,347,249,533 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.95 | $6,345,376,447 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.95 | $6,345,376,447 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.94 | $6,346,252,255 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.94 | $6,346,253,730 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.94 | $6,346,253,730 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.94 | $6,346,253,730 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.10 | $6,373,915,178 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.17 | $6,418,423,292 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.17 | $6,418,423,292 | 14 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 21 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.