Roku Inc (ROKU)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$160.37-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROKU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ROKU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026 , Roku, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The Company’s Shareholder Letter, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be treated as filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated…
Why it matters: Roku says steady Platform growth is a key goal. Q2 growth was 25% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Platform revenue grows less than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Platform revenue grows 10% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Roku is growing its TV footprint, but devices can lose money. Q2 device margin included a tariff refund.
Watch forRoku-made TVs gain U.S. unit share above about 5%, while device gross margin stays above zero without refund help.
Also watch forRoku-made TV share falls below about 5%, or device gross margin turns negative without refund help.
Why it matters: Smartly is Roku's first partner on its Ads API. New ad demand could add revenue beyond current channels.
Supportive ifRoku reports ad revenue linked to Smartly by early 2027.
Worry ifRoku reports no Smartly-linked ad revenue by early 2027 or says the launch is delayed.
Why it matters: The FOX merger needs shareholder and regulator approval. The lawsuit may affect the deal or its timing.
Watch forFOX and Roku file required merger papers. They get shareholder and regulator approval and keep the first-half 2027 close window.
Also watch forA court blocks the deal, a key approval fails, or the companies delay or end the merger.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$65 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,769 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.