Roku Inc (ROKU)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$155.59-1.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROKU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
Why it matters: This would confirm Roku's ability to meet its revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifTotal net revenue reported at or above $5.5B for 2026.
Worry ifTotal net revenue reported below $5B for 2026.
Why it matters: This merger could change Roku's market position and growth potential. It is a key strategic move.
Watch forRoku shares more details or benefits from the merger with Fox Corporation.
Also watch forNo big updates or benefits from the merger are shared.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show profit problems. It could affect management's growth goals.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $170 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $170 million for Q2.
Why it matters: The merger with FOX could help Roku grow. This is important for Roku's future.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by mid-2027. All approvals and votes must be completed.
Worry ifThe deal fails if there are regulatory problems or if shareholders say no.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,769 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If Platform revenue growth slows, it may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 Platform revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Platform revenue growth remains at or above 25% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger could improve Roku's content and help it compete better.
Supportive ifThe merger closes by the expected timeline in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifThe merger may face big delays or regulatory issues after mid-2027.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show that Roku is making money and working well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA should be $675 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls short of $675 million for the year.
Why it matters: More sales would show that Roku is growing in the tough TV market.
Supportive ifRoku-made TVs account for more than 10% of U.S. TV unit sales.
Worry ifRoku-made TVs remain below 5% of U.S. TV unit sales.