Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.44+2.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.83 → 1.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RPD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.60 in 2026 | A primary condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.56. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.52 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RPD is a cybersecurity company in a transition phase, with a long-term thesis centered on its core platform and AI foundation. The thesis is intact, but recent signals have shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as revenue and ARR have shown limited growth progress.
The valuation evidence is mixed: RPD is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, and the evidence says no major fragility signals are present.
Near term, management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, but quarterly revenue is below the prior-year level and progress toward the full-year goals remains limited. A recent earnings beat is a positive data point, though the overall performance signal is now mixed and the risk level is high.
The multi-year view depends on whether investment in the core platform and AI foundation begins to support stronger growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts and steadier results from large technology companies could provide a sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RPD’s thesis rests on turning its platform focus into renewed growth while meeting 2026 guidance. The evidence is mixed, with high risk and low-confidence valuation signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is targeted at $130M. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $125M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $35.834M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$130M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202635,834,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful leadership transition and AI strategy execution | A supporting condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving execution and AI-driven growth. | Improving | Leadership fails to deliver growth or AI strategy stalls | Qualitative: Q3 beat & AI roadmap Q3 beat, $130M FCF target, autonomous SOC planned for 2027, 12% workforce cut for AI investment. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $836M to $842M | A primary condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$839M. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $836M in FY26 | Revenue: $212.404M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$839M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026212,404,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.54 → $1.82 · observed estimates
$0.84B → $0.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.54 | $837,208,438 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.54 | $837,208,438 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.54 | $836,948,049 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.54 | $836,948,049 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.54 | $836,948,047 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.54 | $836,948,047 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.54 | $836,948,047 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.54 | $836,948,047 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.55 | $836,985,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.76 | $830,355,050 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.54 | $836,946,229 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.83 | $830,333,327 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.83 | $830,331,549 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.83 | $830,321,054 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.83 | $830,321,054 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.83 | $830,321,054 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.83 | $830,321,054 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.83 | $830,321,054 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.83 | $830,332,912 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.83 | $830,360,184 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.83 | $830,360,184 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.83 | $830,360,184 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.83 | $830,360,184 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.83 | $830,360,184 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $829,996,548 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.83 | $830,012,574 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.83 | $830,012,574 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.82 | $829,394,126 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.82 | $829,394,126 | 8 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.82 | $829,394,126 | 8 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.82 | $829,394,126 | 8 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.