Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.00-4.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RPD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RPD — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-08-10
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On August 7, 2026 , the board of directors of the Company approved a restructuring plan that is designed to simplify the Company's operations, align resources and investments with its core platform, and create capacity to reinvest in capabilities and solutions that improve the customer experience and strengthen the Company's competitive position (collectively, the “ 2026 Restructuring Plan ”). The 2026 Restructuring Plan includes a reduction…
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target is important for investor trust. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported between $1.52 and $1.60.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $1.52.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan may affect how well the company does. It could also change how investors feel.
Watch forAnalysts or investors may give good feedback about the new CEO's plan.
Also watch forThere may be bad feedback or worries about the CEO's change hurting the company.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and profit trends. This is key for assessing performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and profit margins improving.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows lower revenue and profit margins.
Why it matters: The new CEO's style and vision can change the company. This affects how investors feel.
Watch forThe stock price went up after the transition. This shows a positive market response.
Also watch forThe stock price went down after the transition. This shows a negative market response.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$320 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $789 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,573 loss on $10,000 · 75.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A non-GAAP EPS below $0.44 would show problems with profits and efficiency.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS was below $0.44. This confirms issues with keeping profits.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP EPS was at or above $0.44. This shows better earnings than expected.
Why it matters: A decline worse than $812 million signals ongoing struggles in customer retention and growth.
Worry ifQ3 ARR was below $812 million. This shows ongoing revenue problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 ARR was above $812 million. This suggests customer growth is stable or improving.
Why it matters: Reaching this EPS range is key for investor trust. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported between $0.44 and $0.47.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $0.44.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: If it falls below $208 million, it would show a bad trend in sales.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $208 million. This shows a drop in sales.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue was at or above $208 million. This suggests sales are stable.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with future investments. It also keeps operations stable.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $125M and $135M.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $125M.
Why it matters: Earnings must align with the guidance of $1.52 to $1.60 for 2026. This shows earnings health.
Supportive ifQ2 non-GAAP EPS was at least $0.02. This shows improvement towards the yearly goal.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP EPS was less than $0.02. This shows difficulties in reaching the earnings goal.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Rapid7 can stabilize revenue after recent drops. Meeting or beating this range is a good sign.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $208 million to $210 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $208 million.
Why it matters: Annual recurring revenue is important for growth. A drop below this level shows problems with keeping or gaining customers.
Worry ifARR reported at or above $812 million.
Less concerning ifARR reported below $812 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. Meeting this target shows strong cash management.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $130 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $130 million.
Why it matters: Higher costs could indicate deeper operational issues. Keeping costs within this range is vital for financial health.
Worry ifRestructuring costs are $11 million or less.
Less concerning ifRestructuring costs are more than $11 million.