Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.44+2.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RPD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RPD — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-08-10
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On August 7, 2026 , the board of directors of the Company approved a restructuring plan that is designed to simplify the Company's operations, align resources and investments with its core platform, and create capacity to reinvest in capabilities and solutions that improve the customer experience and strengthen the Company's competitive position (collectively, the “ 2026 Restructuring Plan ”). The 2026 Restructuring Plan includes a reduction…
Why it matters: ARR fell 2.0% year over year in Q2. A lower Q3 result would point to further weakness in recurring sales.
Worry ifOn November 4, ARR is below $812 million, the Q3 level Rapid7 guided for.
Less concerning ifQ3 ARR is $812 million or higher.
Why it matters: Rapid7 is putting more effort into AI and its core security platform while revenue is declining. Paid customer uptake would give a clear sign that this strategy is gaining traction.
Supportive ifRapid7 reports new paying customers or revenue tied to its AI SOC, Kenzo, or Command Platform updates.
Worry ifRapid7 reports no paid customer gains tied to these products and revenue continues to fall year over year.
Why it matters: Rapid7's Q2 revenue fell 1.5% year over year. A result below its Q3 range would deepen that decline.
Worry ifOn November 4, Q3 revenue is below $208 million. The company's guided range is $208 million to $210 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $208 million and within or above the guided range.
Why it matters: Rapid7 is cutting about 12% of its workforce to focus on core products. Lower costs may help, but weak sales would show that the shift has not yet fixed growth.
Watch forLater results show operating costs fall while revenue stays at or above Q2's $210.9 million level.
Also watch forLater results show revenue below $210.9 million and operating costs stay at Q2 levels or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$284 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $796 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,976 loss on $10,000 · 69.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Rapid7 reported $31.9 million of free cash flow in Q2 and set a full-year target near $130 million. A miss would weaken the cash-generation picture.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $125 million, the low end of the earlier guided range.
Less concerning ifFull-year free cash flow is at least $125 million and within the earlier $125 million to $135 million range.