Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc (RPID)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.62-9.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RPID yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce recurring earnings misses | The company is improving after past earnings misses. | Broken | Earnings misses continue or worsen over next 4 quarters | Diluted EPS: $-0.27 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Fewer earnings misses in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-0.27 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has reaffirmed 2026 goals, but recent earnings misses and results below its industry cohort keep execution in question.
The evidence describes RPID as cheap versus peers, with expectations already below the model’s baseline, though confidence in that valuation read is low. The low fragility rating means no listed warning gate has fired, but it does not remove the business and earnings risks.
Near term, revenue has been steady at $8.0 million in Q1 and $8.1 million in Q2, while gross margin improved from 4.6% to 15.0%; both remain short of the full-year guidance pace or level. Management reaffirmed its revenue and gross-margin goals, but system placements slipped quarter over quarter, and consecutive earnings misses leave elevated risk of another miss.
The multi-year thesis hinges on reaching 2026 revenue guidance of $37 million to $41 million, approaching the 20% gross-margin goal, and converting validations into system placements. A guidance cut or further jobs-market weakening would add pressure, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RPID’s long-term thesis rests on improving margins and delivery against guidance, but the loss-making business and recent earnings misses make execution the central concern. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets a 20% gross margin. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 15% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 15.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202615.048423 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year 2026 Outlook The Company is reaffirming its full year 2026 total revenue guidance range of $37.0 million to $41.0 million including a range of 30 to 38 Growth Direct system placements and total gross margin percentage of approximately 20%.” “Gross margin was 15.0%, or $1.2 million, a quarterly record, compared to 3.8%, or $0.3 million in the second quarter of 2025.” Gross profit was $1.212 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $37M to $41M | A primary condition in Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $37M to $41M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $37M in FY26 | Revenue: $8.054M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $37M to $41M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20268,054,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year 2026 Outlook The Company is reaffirming its full year 2026 total revenue guidance range of $37.0 million to $41.0 million including a range of 30 to 38 Growth Direct system placements and total gross margin percentage of approximately 20%.” “Second Quarter Financial Results Total revenue for the second quarter of 2026 increased 10.9% to $8.1 million compared to $7.3 million in the second quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $8.054 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.79 → $-0.71 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.81 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.77 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.77 | $46,575,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.79 | $46,575,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.73 | $46,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.71 | $46,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.