Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc (RPID)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.31-5.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RPID
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RPID — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2026, Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information furnished under Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Why it matters: A big rise in recurring revenue shows strong demand for products. It means long-term customer ties.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue grows more than 14% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth falls below 14% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Rapid Micro has missed earnings recently. How they address this will impact investor confidence.
Watch forManagement outlines a clear plan to improve earnings in the next earnings call.
Also watch forNo clear plan is presented to address earnings misses.
Why it matters: If they miss earnings again, investors will be worried. This makes people doubt if management can meet goals.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a miss again.
Less concerning ifEarnings meet or exceed expectations.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target is crucial to stay on track for the full-year guidance of $37M-$41M.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 total revenue reported at $9.5 million or higher.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, total revenue was less than $9.5 million.
Why it matters: Fewer placements may show problems in market adoption of the Growth Direct system.
Worry ifTotal placements for 2026 fall below 30.
Less concerning ifTotal placements for 2026 meet or exceed 30.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing down. If growth picks up, it could help Rapid Micro.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again. It is getting closer to its highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth returning to positive year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate shows the company is on track to meet its annual revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth meets or exceeds 11% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth falls below 11% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect the company's direction. Stability is important for investor trust.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO with a clear strategy.
Also watch forThere may be delays in finding a new CEO. This creates uncertainty.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 10% would signal challenges in meeting annual guidance. This could raise concerns about demand and execution.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue grew less than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth of 10% or more year-over-year.
Why it matters: A gross margin below 20% would challenge management's guidance and indicate cost pressures. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin below 20%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin at or above 20%.
Why it matters: Getting at least 27 validations shows strong customer interest. This helps support growth.
Supportive ifAt least 27 system validations completed in Q3.
Worry ifFewer than 27 system validations were done in Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in placements would indicate weakening demand for the Growth Direct system. This could impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifFewer than 4 Growth Direct system placements in Q3.
Less concerning if4 or more Growth Direct system placements in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $737 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,201 loss on $10,000 · 72.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.