Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.66-5.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.91 → 2.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RRR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $3.19 for FY 2026 | Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $3.19, supporting durable profitability. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $3.19 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.17 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$3.19. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RRR is a consumer discretionary business with a moderate-risk, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or a consistent growth story. The thesis is currently intact, and company momentum has improved, though recent financial performance is mixed.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning the model sees expectations as close to its estimate rather than notably high or low. RRR trades at a premium to peers, while the model has low confidence and the evidence does not point to high valuation fragility.
Near term, the company’s recent earnings record is erratic, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the estimated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, the revenue focus has produced mixed results, and operating income fell year over year in the latest comparable quarter. The repeated quarterly dividend declaration shows delivery at the stated level, while a recent credit agreement and capital-allocation obligation are additional items to monitor.
The near-term swing factor is whether RRR maintains guidance and execution, or cuts guidance and prompts lower estimates. Sector conditions also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis remains intact, but the premium to peers and mixed operating trends make continued execution central. Evidence is limited, and the model’s valuation confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable, with operating income around $143.7 million. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $143 million next year |
Operating income: $26.668M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$143 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202626,668,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net revenue growth at or above 1.9% YoY | A primary condition in Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.9% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 1.9% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.45 → $2.83 · observed estimates
$2.14B → $2.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.45 | $2,140,337,170 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.98 | $2,140,081,341 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.98 | $2,140,081,341 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.98 | $2,140,081,341 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.45 | $2,140,081,250 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.67 | $2,145,254,720 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.96 | $2,146,261,319 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.95 | $2,146,818,061 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.98 | $2,147,240,529 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.98 | $2,147,250,199 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.91 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.92 | $2,147,414,077 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.92 | $2,147,616,410 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.92 | $2,148,458,753 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.92 | $2,148,342,471 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.92 | $2,148,342,471 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.92 | $2,148,342,471 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.92 | $2,148,103,582 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.83 | $2,147,470,476 | 8 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.