Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.66-5.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RRR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RRR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Operating income fell from $168.0 million to $136.0 million year over year in Q2. A recovery would show that earnings pressure eased.
Watch forQ3 operating income is above $168.0 million, the result from Q3 2025.
Also watch forQ3 operating income is at or below $136.0 million, the Q2 2026 result.
Why it matters: The October loan adds debt to a company that reported $3.6 billion of debt in Q2. Loan terms and the use of funds can show its effect on debt costs.
Watch forA company filing gives the loan's interest rate and use of funds. It says the rate on existing term loans will not rise.
Also watch forA filing shows the new loan raises borrowing costs or adds further debt beyond the $500 million loan.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 3.0% year over year after Q1 revenue rose 1.9%. Q3 results can show whether that weakness continued.
Watch forQ3 net revenue is above $526.3 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Also watch forQ3 net revenue is below $526.3 million and falls year over year.
Why it matters: RRR declared a $0.26 per-share dividend in each of the three supplied quarters. A new declaration would continue that pattern.
Supportive ifA company release declares a $0.26 dividend per Class A share for the next quarter.
Worry ifA company release declares less than $0.26 per share, or no dividend, for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,801 loss on $10,000 · 28.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.