Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$57.15+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RRR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
RRR — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-12
Chief Legal Officer — Jeffrey T. Welch: Jeffrey T. Welch is retiring from his role as Chief Legal Officer and will be succeeded by J. Colby Williams.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal ongoing challenges in revenue growth for Red Rock Resorts.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues from Las Vegas operations decline more than 2% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenues from Las Vegas operations increase or decline less than 2%.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Red Rock's revenue. FOMC decisions may impact this.
Watch forConsumer spending rises after the FOMC meeting on July 29.
Also watch forConsumer spending goes down after the FOMC meeting.
Why it matters: If operating income keeps falling, it shows efficiency problems. This may hurt profits and cash flow.
Worry ifOperating income was below $143.7M in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income improves to above $143.7M in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher unemployment may lead to less spending, which can hurt Red Rock's sales.
Worry ifUnemployment rate goes above 5% on August 20.
Less concerning ifUnemployment rate falls below 4.5% on August 20.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,204 loss on $10,000 · 22.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could indicate weakening demand in the Las Vegas market.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net revenue growth lower than 1.9% from Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net revenue growth higher than 1.9% from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show weaker performance. This could affect dividend payments.
Worry ifQuarterly cash flow from operations drops below $150 million.
Less concerning ifQuarterly cash flow from operations is still over $150 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth in Las Vegas is key for overall performance. It shows consumer demand and success.
Supportive ifLas Vegas operations revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth in Las Vegas is below 2%. This shows possible market weakness.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income could show deeper problems. Investors might react badly to lower earnings.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income falls below $39.6 million, which is a 5% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income stays above $39.6 million. This shows stability or improvement.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show that management's focus on growth is working. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenues increase year over year by more than 1%.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues decline year over year by more than 2%.
Why it matters: If adjusted EBITDA goes down, it shows the company is less efficient. This may worry investors.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $200 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 stays above $210 million.
Why it matters: A big drop would show ongoing problems in making more money. This is important for management.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues fall more than 3% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenues stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps the company keep paying dividends and invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $150 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show that a company is doing well. They also promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share.
Worry ifThe Board reduces the quarterly dividend below $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Revenue trends from Las Vegas are key for overall success and growth.
Watch forLas Vegas revenue goes up each year.
Also watch forLas Vegas revenue goes down each year.