Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.90-3.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.84 → 0.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $230M-$250M in 2026 | Profit grows with adjusted EBITDA near $240 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $200M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented gaming business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality. The long-term thesis is intact, but the risk level is elevated and full-year earnings delivery remains unproven.
RSI is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to expectations already running ahead of the model’s outlook. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but expensive valuation makes execution important to the multi-year view.
Near-term results show revenue rising from $277.9 million in 2025-Q3 to $385.9 million in 2026-Q3, alongside 300,572 North American monthly active users. Management reiterated its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $245 million to $265 million, but delivery is not yet established; a guidance cut after the recent raise would also hurt credibility.
The thesis depends on continued revenue and player growth, and on delivering the full-year Adjusted EBITDA range. Sector bellwethers such as LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could either sustain or weaken the sector tailwind, while a guidance cut would be a clear negative.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RSI has evidence of operating momentum, but its expensive valuation and elevated risk make execution and guidance credibility central to the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Rush Street Interactive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider stock selling. |
| Under Pressure |
| Major insider selling or leadership departures occur |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain positive net income growth | Net income is rising, showing positive momentum. | Intact | Net income declines year over year | Net income: $11.834M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Positive net income growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202611,834,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to $1.49B-$1.54B in 2026 | A primary condition in Rush Street Interactive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $1.49B-$1.54B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1B in FY26 | Revenue: $385.851M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.49B-$1.54B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026385,851,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.84 → $0.82 · observed estimates
$1.76B → $1.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.84 | $1,761,238,290 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.84 | $1,761,238,290 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.84 | $1,762,874,650 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.84 | $1,762,874,650 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.84 | $1,762,874,650 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.83 | $1,763,692,830 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.83 | $1,772,698,740 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.84 | $1,818,196,600 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.84 | $1,831,216,636 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.85 | $1,836,889,880 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.85 | $1,836,898,455 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.84 | $1,838,560,182 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.84 | $1,838,578,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.84 | $1,839,078,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.84 | $1,839,078,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.84 | $1,839,078,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.84 | $1,839,078,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.84 | $1,839,078,364 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.84 | $1,839,044,309 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.84 | $1,840,840,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.84 | $1,840,757,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.84 | $1,839,823,283 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.84 | $1,830,064,617 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.84 | $1,829,721,147 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.84 | $1,830,638,170 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.84 | $1,830,638,170 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.84 | $1,830,638,170 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.83 | $1,830,636,631 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.83 | $1,830,636,631 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.83 | $1,830,636,631 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.83 | $1,830,636,631 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $1,829,959,708 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.83 | $1,827,036,631 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.82 | $1,798,166,039 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.82 | $1,792,204,501 | 6 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 15 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.