Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.68-0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RSI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026 , Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Net income growth is positive. This shows financial health and good cost management.
Supportive ifNet income grows year over year in Q3.
Worry ifNet income declines year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in consumer spending.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported in Q2 2026 is above 0% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported in Q2 2026 remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth in Monthly Active Users may mean the market is full or competition is rising.
Worry ifMonthly Active Users growth was below 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifMonthly Active Users growth is at or above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The launch in Alberta could significantly boost user growth and revenue.
Supportive ifThe launch in Alberta went well with strong early user interest.
Worry ifDelays or poor initial performance in the Alberta market launch.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $395 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,966 loss on $10,000 · 29.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Any cut in guidance could show weaker market conditions or more competition.
Worry ifManagement keeps or raises the full year 2026 revenue guidance above $1,560 million.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts the full year 2026 revenue guidance to below $1,560 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows the company's growth plan works well and can last.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 falls within the range of $245M-$265M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 falls below $245M.
Why it matters: A strong launch in Alberta could boost user growth and revenue in a new market.
Supportive ifThe Alberta launch had good user engagement metrics.
Worry ifThe Alberta launch had poor user engagement metrics.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector growth could boost RSI's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported at above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower growth may mean the online casino market is slowing down. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 38% year-over-year compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 38% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Falling short may show problems in operations. This can affect long-term growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 falls below $60 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 meets or exceeds $60 million.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean the market is full or competition is rising. This can hurt revenue.
Worry ifMAU growth in North America drops below 50% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifMAU growth in North America remains at or above 50% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A decline may mean a change in business strategy or more competition. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifOnline casino revenue share drops below 70% of total revenue.
Less concerning ifOnline casino revenue share remains at or above 70% of total revenue.