Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rumble, Inc. (RUM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.70-8.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RUM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage credit agreements and equity sales to support growth | New credit deals support liquidity. | Intact | Capital moves fail to support liquidity or dilute shareholders excessively | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As of June 30, 2026, RUM Group had total liquidity of $220.5 million, consisting of $203.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and 293.14 Bitcoin, valued at $17.2 million.” “As of March 31, 2026, Rumble had total liquidity of $233.4 million, consisting of $219.0 million in cash and cash equivalents and 210.82 Bitcoin, valued at $14.4 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative growth story, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, and the risk rating has risen, though the evidence says it has not freshly broken.
RUM trades at a 13.07% premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to optionality, or value tied to future opportunities. The expectations gap is 6.57, and the priced-in assessment labels the valuation unjustified; however, the snapshot says fragility is low because expensive valuation is not combined with the full set of weak and turbulent conditions.
Near term, losses, weak recent performance, and a run of earnings misses leave execution uncertain; the estimated miss probability for the next print is 47%. Revenue rose 61% year over year in 2026-Q2, helped by Northern Data, and GPU utilization improved, while roughly 250 MW of capacity is targeted for 2027; these steps support the growth plan but do not yet establish durable earnings.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth and AI capacity becoming productive, while management manages acquisition funding and equity issuance. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; easier rates or continued strong results and guidance from sector leaders could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RUM remains an uncertain growth thesis with real expansion in revenue and AI infrastructure, but losses, repeated misses, volatile management, and expensive valuation leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net loss improves to less negative than -$30.3 million in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Rumble, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net loss > -$30.3 million. | Broken | Net loss worsens beyond -$30.3 million in Q1 2026 | Net income: $-79.145M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss > -$30.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-79,144,706 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $170 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Rumble, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $170 million. | Improving | Revenue falls below $170 million in FY26 | Revenue: $40.367M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $170 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202640,366,736 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue grew 61% year-over-year to $40.4 million, marking another all-time record for our company.” “Q1 2026 Key Highlights and Key Items ● Record first quarter revenue of $25.5 million, growth of 7% from $23.7 million in the first quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $40.367 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.14 → $-0.38 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $440,719,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.14 | $317,009,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.17 | $558,950,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.27 | $640,666,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.38 | $683,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.38 | $683,725,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.