Rumble, Inc. (RUM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.60-4.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RUM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 324.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 317.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RUM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, RUM Group Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibits, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (th…
Why it matters: Stable or increasing MAUs would indicate user engagement is strong. This is critical for Rumble's revenue growth.
Supportive ifAverage MAUs exceed 56 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAverage MAUs fall below 56 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This growth shows that management believes in their investments from 2025. It also shows recovery from recent drops in revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 7% year-over-year compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than or equal to 7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: What management thinks about making money can change how investors feel.
Watch forManagement has a clear plan to make money in the next year.
Also watch forManagement says there will be more delays in making money.
Why it matters: The credit agreement is important for Rumble's money and choices. Changes may affect how they operate.
Worry ifManagement shares good terms of the credit agreement that improve cash flow.
Less concerning ifManagement reveals bad terms or problems with the credit agreement.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$380 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $707 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,544 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High GPU use shows strong demand for AI services. This can increase Rumble's revenue.
Supportive ifNorthern Data reports GPU use rates over 85% for two months in a row.
Worry ifGPU use rates fall below 70%. This shows weak demand for AI services.
Why it matters: A drop in GPU usage may show inefficiencies. This could lower revenue from AI services.
Worry ifGPU usage reported falls below 85%.
Less concerning ifGPU usage stays above 85%.
Why it matters: Clear news about how money is spent can lead to better financial management. This can also bring more stability.
Watch forManagement has a clear plan for spending money. They have good results from credit deals.
Also watch forNo clear news or bad updates about capital allocation plans.
Why it matters: The acquisition could significantly change Rumble's revenue profile. Investors will look for signs of growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance is over $45 million. This shows strong growth from Northern Data.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance is under $40 million. This suggests problems with integration or low demand.
Why it matters: If revenue is below the guidance range, it raises worries about growth and execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $87 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $93 million.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition would improve Rumble's infrastructure and help it make more money. It is an important step in Rumble's growth plan.
Supportive ifThe Northern Data acquisition is done. Rumble now owns over 85% of its shares.
Worry ifIf the acquisition is delayed or fails, Rumble will own less than 85% of Northern Data.
Why it matters: MAU growth reflects user engagement and platform health. A decline could signal issues.
Watch forMAUs rise by over 10% from last quarter. This shows strong user engagement.
Also watch forMAUs drop by over 5% from last quarter. This suggests less user interest.
Why it matters: A decrease in net income losses would show Rumble is solving its money-making issues. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income losses in Q2 2026 are less than -$30 million.
Worry ifNet income losses in Q2 2026 are equal to or worse than -$30 million.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth would help management's plans and outlook for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $30M. This shows growth after recent drops.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains below $30M, signaling continued struggles in growth.
Why it matters: New plans for money use may show that management believes in future growth and stability.
Watch forAnnouncement of new partnerships or funding plans.
Also watch forNo new plans for money use or partnerships have been announced.
Why it matters: A change in Northern Data's revenue outlook may affect Rumble's growth and investor trust.
Watch forNorthern Data raises its revenue outlook above €190 million.
Also watch forNorthern Data lowers its revenue outlook below €170 million.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the company is improving after a decline.
Supportive ifRumble reports positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Worry ifRumble has reported negative revenue growth for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management's confidence in growth after a strong Q2. Meeting or exceeding this range signals continued momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within or above the $87M to $93M guidance range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $87M.
Why it matters: High GPU use shows strong demand for Quake AI's services. This helps revenue and efficiency.
Supportive ifGPU utilization reported at or above 85% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGPU use drops below 80%.
Why it matters: Good integration can increase capacity and revenue. Problems might mean trouble reaching growth goals.
Watch forGood news on integration progress and revenue from Northern Data.
Also watch forReports of integration problems or low revenue from Northern Data.