Sunrun (RUN)
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.89-0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Continue improving operating income: Q2 FY26 operating margin +4.0% vs target >-2.3% (implied by <$20M loss on ~$870M rev).
Sunrun is growing revenue fast, up 43% year over year. Operating losses are shrinking, improving from -$115M to -$44M. Cash from operations turned positive at $10.6M, supporting growth. A big Tesla deal boosts future revenue potential.
The company still loses money and cash flow is fragile. The recent sharp stock selloff shows investor doubts. Revenue growth could slow and cost cuts may stall.
The stock price is about 53% below our fair value near $26. Analysts expect only about 3% revenue growth, while we see potential for stronger growth from new partnerships.
Breaks if: Cash from operations turns negative again next year
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$50M next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making but is working on improving its fundamentals through a storage-first strategy and enhancing subscriber value.
The market appears to be pricing RUN as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may have low expectations for immediate performance improvements.
Fundamentals are showing mixed progress. While there has been some improvement in cash generation, recent guidance revisions indicate challenges in subscriber value and overall performance.
The future of RUN hinges on its ability to raise guidance in upcoming quarters and the performance of sector bellwether NXT. Positive shifts in these areas could lead to a favorable outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the company's growth narrative. However, the company cut its 2026 outlook, which impacts revenue growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Tesla partnership fails to generate expected revenue impact by end of FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, RUN's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.