Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sunrun (RUN)
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.87+12.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.38 → 0.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RUN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive cash flow from operations | Cash from operations turned positive at $10.6M, supporting growth. | Improving | Cash from operations turns negative again next year | Cash from operations: $-175.556M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations remains positive. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-175,556,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making but has stable management and is working to improve its financial performance amidst sector headwinds.
The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may have lower expectations for future performance. The current valuation suggests that the stock is seen as justified but not without risks.
Fundamentals are showing mixed progress, particularly in cash generation and subscriber value. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a slight downward revision in guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter and the performance of the sector bellwether NXT. Positive developments in these areas could lead to a favorable shift, while negative trends could pose risks.
In the next 1 to 3 years, RUN's performance will depend on its execution of key management priorities and external sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating losses are shrinking, improving from -$115M to -$44M. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$50M next year |
Operating income: $153.482M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to less than -$20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026153,482,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Realize revenue growth from Tesla partnership | A supporting condition in Sunrun's published investment case. The stated target is Tesla-related revenue contributes meaningfully to growth. | Intact | Tesla partnership fails to generate expected revenue impact by end of FY26 | Q3 rev $1.09B (beat by $284M); Tesla Dispatch 580MW event Q3 revenue beat by $284M; Tesla Dispatch 580MW to CA grid marks largest residential event in history. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near recent levels | A primary condition in Sunrun's published investment case. The stated target is >=40% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year | Revenue growth: 51.75% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=40% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202651.74762 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.02 → $0.66 · observed estimates
$3.26B → $3.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.02 | $3,256,576,060 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.17 | $3,254,874,910 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.17 | $3,254,874,910 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.01 | $3,254,874,910 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.01 | $3,254,874,910 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.01 | $3,254,874,910 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.01 | $3,254,874,910 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.47 | $3,277,691,149 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.01 | $3,254,874,910 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.15 | $3,416,926,860 | 10 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.04 | $3,231,773,210 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.04 | $3,231,773,210 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.94 | $3,225,173,210 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.49 | $3,272,491,730 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.48 | $3,246,811,349 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.49 | $3,245,189,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.43 | $3,228,289,699 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.43 | $3,217,993,309 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.38 | $3,168,816,444 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.38 | $3,168,816,444 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.38 | $3,168,816,444 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.38 | $3,168,816,444 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.39 | $3,149,866,303 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.39 | $3,149,866,303 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.56 | $3,157,521,183 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.56 | $3,157,521,183 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.56 | $3,157,521,183 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.56 | $3,157,521,183 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.56 | $3,157,521,183 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.66 | $3,257,567,204 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.66 | $3,257,567,204 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.66 | $3,257,567,204 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.66 | $3,257,567,204 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.66 | $3,257,567,204 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.66 | $3,257,578,734 | 8 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.