Sunrun (RUN)
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.89-0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RUN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-01-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 31, 2025, Sunrun Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 4 (“Amendment No. 4”) to that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of January 24, 2022 (as amended by Amendment No. 4, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, KeyBank National Association, as administrative agent, and the other parties thereto, to, among other things, (a) extend the stated maturity date from March 1, 2027 to March 1, 2028, (b) reduce the commitment…
Why it matters: Better operating income helps Sunrun manage its costs.
Supportive ifOperating income is up more than 15% from last year.
Worry ifOperating income is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows good financial health. Weak cash flow can cause worries.
Supportive ifCash Generation was over $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash Generation was below $200 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company makes money from its subscribers. It shows efficiency and demand.
Supportive ifQ2 Contracted Net Value Creation reported within the range of $100 million to $200 million.
Worry ifQ2 Contracted Net Value Creation reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Sunrun. Strong growth signals business health.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$298 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $712 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,091 loss on $10,000 · 60.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stabilizing subscriber value is key for growth and investor confidence. A drop could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 Aggregate Subscriber Value was over $4.6 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 Aggregate Subscriber Value falls below $4.6 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in additions would signal weakening market demand and growth potential.
Worry ifSubscriber Additions were below 17,000 in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSubscriber Additions are over 17,000. This shows they are gaining many customers.
Why it matters: Cash flow stability is key for Sunrun's financial health and growth plans.
Watch forCash flow from operations is positive and stays above $10 million.
Also watch forCash flow from operations is negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A high attachment rate indicates strong customer demand for storage solutions. A drop could signal market weakness.
Supportive ifStorage Attachment Rate remains above 74% in Q3.
Worry ifStorage Attachment Rate falls below 74% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop would mean less demand for storage solutions. This could hurt future growth.
Worry ifStorage Attachment Rate was below 70%. This shows less customer interest in battery storage.
Less concerning ifStorage Attachment Rate is above 70%. This shows strong demand is still there.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Sunrun's revenue. It would indicate a shift in the maturing phase of the sector.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 10% in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 5% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Less cash used shows better management and financial health.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the company used less than -$186 million in cash for operations.
Worry ifNet cash used in operating activities was worse than -$186 million in Q3.
Why it matters: More new subscribers show growth. Fewer additions may mean market problems.
Supportive ifSubscriber Additions exceed 20,000 in Q3.
Worry ifSubscriber Additions fall below 20,000 in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows better efficiency. This is key for funding growth without more debt.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported as positive for Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported as negative for Q2.