Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$19.04-4.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RVLV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin near 54.2% in FY 2026 | Revolve Group keeps its gross margin near 54% as guided for 2026. | Improving | gross margin falls below 53.7% in FY26 | Gross margin: 53.88% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=53.7% and <=54.2% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202653.881205 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but the evidence is only medium confidence.
RVLV is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a sizable expectations gap. The evidence labels the valuation premium unjustified, though valuation is the main source of fragility rather than a wider mix of weak fundamentals and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent results show sales and active customers growing, while gross margin improved and management kept its full-year margin guidance unchanged. General and administrative costs are rising with investment, and a litigation filing is a fresh risk; the reported chance of a near-term miss is low, but the company’s smaller size and past deep miss warrant attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued customer and sales growth, margin delivery, and cost discipline. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength among consumer-discretionary bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
For a 1-to-3-year view, RVLV has an intact growth thesis and improving recent signals, but its expensive valuation makes execution and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating cash flow improves from negative to positive, reaching about $49 million in early 2026. |
| Intact |
| cash from operating activities falls below $0 in 2026-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “RETURN OF CAPITAL We have repurchased ~$8M in RVLV common shares to date in Q2 20262 18 Investing in Three Growth Initiatives in 2026 We Believe Could Be Game Changers 1 REVOLVE LOS ANGELES We launched our first-ever namesake label, supported by impactful multi-faceted marketing investments.” “17 How We Think About Capital Allocation Priorities CAPITAL ALLOCATION PRIORITIES CASH & CASH EQUIVALENTS ($M)1 In order of priority: #1 Invest back into the business #2 Thoughtfully evaluate M&A opportunities #3 Return of capital Cash is >4.5X in 6 years Increased focus on capital allocation with growing capital driven by cash flow generation Notes: 1) Cash, net of borrowings for period ended 3/31/2020.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 10% in next 12 months | Sales growth is expected near 10% next year, supporting steady profit growth. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.07 → $1.06 · observed estimates
$1.46B → $1.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.07 | $1,460,368,280 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.07 | $1,465,452,404 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $1,465,452,404 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.07 | $1,460,679,180 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.07 | $1,465,453,119 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.07 | $1,460,676,330 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.07 | $1,460,676,330 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.14 | $1,518,313,160 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.11 | $1,514,292,286 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.11 | $1,518,312,286 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $1,518,315,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.11 | $1,517,980,438 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $1,518,625,891 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $1,518,625,891 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.11 | $1,518,628,244 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.11 | $1,518,628,244 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.11 | $1,518,628,244 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.11 | $1,518,628,244 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.11 | $1,518,628,244 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.06 | $1,532,614,082 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.06 | $1,532,614,082 | 9 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.