Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.35-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RVLV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RVLV — officer change
Dated 2026-03-20
Director — Jennifer Baxter Moser: Jennifer Baxter Moser resigned from the Board and related committees, with Erinn Murphy appointed as a successor.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is more efficient. It also shows stronger financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow in Q3 exceeds $49 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow in Q3 falls below $49 million.
Why it matters: Falling net sales growth shows weak demand. This happens in a tough consumer market.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher marketing costs may show plans for fast growth. But, it might hurt margins.
Watch forMarketing expenses exceed 16% of net sales in Q3.
Also watch forMarketing expenses stay below 16% of net sales in Q3.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for operations. A drop could signal trouble in managing cash.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is at or above $49.4M.
Less concerning ifCash from operations is below $49.4M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $487 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,432 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Controlling marketing costs while increasing sales shows smart spending. This helps with profits.
Supportive ifMarketing costs are under 16% of net sales.
Worry ifMarketing costs are over 16% of net sales.
Why it matters: More active customers show strong demand. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifActive customers grow to at least 3 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifActive customers decline or grow less than 2.9 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining gross margin guidance shows the company can manage costs and pricing well. This supports ongoing profitability.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin guidance remains at or above 53.5%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin guidance drops below 53.5%.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would indicate a shift in the declining sector. It could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Why it matters: Negative free cash flow shows cash problems. This affects growth investments and financial health.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains positive in Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping G&A expenses in check is crucial for overall cost control. Higher costs could hurt profits.
Worry ifG&A expenses reported at or below $168M for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifG&A expenses reported above $168M.
Why it matters: Steady growth in sales is key. It helps keep market share and builds investor trust.
Supportive ifNet sales increase by at least 14% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet sales growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Slowing growth in active customers could signal weakening demand or market share loss. This would be a key indicator of future sales.
Worry ifThe active customer growth rate is over 8% each year.
Less concerning ifThe active customer growth rate is below 8% each year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margin for Q3 falls below 53.5%.
Less concerning ifGross margin for Q3 stays above 54.0%.