Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
REVOLUTION Medicines Inc (RVMD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$177.65-11.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RVMD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital with $500 million convertible notes issued | The company raised $500 million with convertible notes. | Intact | Failure to maintain capital or repay convertible notes | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development business, with value tied to advancing drug candidates and building the ability to commercialize them. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has made progress on key priorities, while recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is loss-making.
The evidence gives no direct valuation measure or clear account of what market expectations assume, so relative valuation and the expectations gap are hard to assess. No pricing fragility signals fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.
Over the multi-year view, regulatory progress for daraxonrasib and ongoing trials for zoldonrasib and elironrasib are important sources of potential business progress. Management reports U.S. launch readiness and expanded global commercial capabilities, though their financial impact is not quantified. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated miss risk weigh on the setup; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The thesis hinges on continued clinical and regulatory progress, including daraxonrasib’s path through approval and the progress of other candidates in trials. Near term, guidance and earnings execution matter, while broader Healthcare-sector momentum could help the backdrop. Weaker jobs data could add recession concerns and pressure the sector.
For the next 1 to 3 years, RVMD’s business case has meaningful clinical and commercialization progress, but remains high risk because financial performance is weak and execution is not yet established. The central question is whether development progress can translate into durable business results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in REVOLUTION Medicines Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations better than -$354 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Cash flow from operations falls below -$354 million next year |
Cash from operations: $-387.319M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations better than -$354 million in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-387,319,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage operating expenses within $1.7 to $1.8 billion in 2026 | They plan $1.7 to $1.8 billion in expenses for 2026. | Broken | Operating expenses exceed $1.8 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.86 → $-5.79 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $1.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.86 | $897,445,510 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-5.41 | $845,754,047 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.30 | $861,113,047 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.30 | $861,113,047 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.30 | $861,113,047 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-5.30 | $861,113,047 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.80 | $881,228,590 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.95 | $967,623,240 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-6.83 | $975,511,020 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-6.37 | $960,515,654 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.64 | $901,450,587 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.64 | $901,450,587 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.69 | $901,462,410 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.69 | $901,462,410 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.69 | $901,462,410 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.69 | $905,436,721 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.69 | $905,436,721 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.69 | $905,436,721 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.69 | $905,436,721 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-5.83 | $1,116,715,319 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-5.83 | $1,116,715,319 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-5.83 | $1,116,715,319 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-5.74 | $1,142,384,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-5.74 | $1,142,384,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-5.74 | $1,142,384,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-5.74 | $1,142,361,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-5.74 | $1,142,361,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-5.74 | $1,142,361,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-5.74 | $1,142,361,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-5.74 | $1,142,361,903 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-5.77 | $1,134,382,009 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-5.77 | $1,134,382,009 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,198 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,218 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,218 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,218 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,218 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-5.99 | $1,161,261,218 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-5.93 | $1,176,826,633 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-5.93 | $1,176,826,633 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-5.93 | $1,176,826,633 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.02 | $1,173,758,317 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.02 | $1,173,758,317 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.02 | $1,173,758,317 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.02 | $1,173,758,317 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.02 | $1,173,758,317 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.98 | $1,180,489,575 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.89 | $1,182,703,365 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.89 | $1,182,703,365 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.89 | $1,182,703,365 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.89 | $1,182,703,365 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.89 | $1,182,704,031 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.89 | $1,182,704,031 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.78 | $1,202,035,666 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.78 | $1,202,304,257 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.78 | $1,202,304,257 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.79 | $1,204,158,345 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.79 | $1,204,158,345 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.79 | $1,204,158,345 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.72 | $1,228,568,335 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.72 | $1,228,568,335 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.72 | $1,228,568,335 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.72 | $1,228,591,062 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.72 | $1,228,591,062 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.88 | $1,219,782,755 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.88 | $1,219,782,755 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.87 | $1,224,557,755 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.87 | $1,224,557,755 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.83 | $1,226,939,929 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,395 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,395 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,395 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,395 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,395 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.79 | $1,232,766,309 | 19 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.