REVOLUTION Medicines Inc (RVMD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$210.02-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RVMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RVMD — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-01
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: High operating expenses may show bad cost management. This can hurt financial health.
Worry ifOperating expenses are more than $1.8B.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses are less than $1.7B.
Why it matters: Updates on zoldonrasib could show progress in treating pancreatic cancer and NSCLC. Good data could increase the company's pipeline value.
Watch forPositive updates from ongoing Phase 3 trials for zoldonrasib in PDAC and NSCLC.
Also watch forNegative updates or delays in the Phase 3 trials for zoldonrasib.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it could help Revolution Medicines. This could improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up to 10% or more.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 10%.
Why it matters: The results will show if daraxonrasib works well. Good results could help stock value.
Supportive ifThe RASolute 302 trial shows better survival rates.
Worry ifThe RASolute 302 trial has results that are not better than standard chemotherapy.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,495 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company is managing expenses and losses as guided.
Worry ifEarnings report shows net losses within the guided range of $1.03B to $1.09B.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows net losses exceeding the guided range.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better financial health. It can support future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations is now positive.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or gets worse.
Why it matters: How fast people enroll in this trial shows the demand for daraxonrasib in first-line PDAC.
Supportive ifThe company says enrollment is done or ahead of schedule for RASolute 303.
Worry ifEnrollment in RASolute 303 is much slower or lower than expected.
Why it matters: This funding aims to improve financial stability. If it fails to stabilize finances, it raises concerns.
Watch forNet income gets better or stays steady after issuing the notes.
Also watch forNet income continues to decline after the notes issuance.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into financial health and operational progress. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show more revenue or fewer losses than Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings fall short of expectations or show more losses than Q1.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how well daraxonrasib works in lung cancer. This could impact future trials and investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarly data from the RASolve 301 trial shows good results for daraxonrasib in NSCLC.
Worry ifEarly data shows weak results or safety problems in the RASolve 301 trial.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment is a key step for advancing daraxonrasib in NSCLC. It sets the stage for data release.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the RASolve 301 trial is done, so data analysis can begin.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed or falls short of expected numbers.