REVOLUTION Medicines Inc (RVMD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$177.65-11.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RVMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RVMD — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-13
Other Events. Royalty Pharma Tranche A Loan As previously disclosed, on June 23, 2025, Revolution Medicines, Inc. (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into a loan agreement (the “Loan Agreement”) with Wilmington Trust, National Association, as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), and Royalty Pharma Development Funding, LLC, as a lender (the “Lender”). The Loan Agreement provides for a senior secured term loan facility of up to $750.0 million, consisting of three tranches of up…
Why it matters: The trial tests daraxonrasib in lung cancer. Management tied finishing enrollment this year to an initial 2027 readout.
Supportive ifThe November 4 update says RASolve 301 enrollment is complete or nearly complete in 2026.
Worry ifManagement reports enrollment is still incomplete at the end of 2026, or moves the first readout beyond 2027.
Why it matters: RM-055 is from a new class of RAS inhibitors. A trial start will test the move from lab work to human testing.
Supportive ifThe company starts the first-in-human RM-055 trial by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe trial has not started by December 31, 2026, or management reports a delay.
Why it matters: This trial will test elironrasib with standard care in first-line lung cancer. A start would move the program into Phase 3 testing.
Supportive ifThe company starts RASolve 307 by December 31, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifThe company has not started RASolve 307 by December 31, 2026, or reports a delay.
Why it matters: The company is loss-making and raised its cost forecast. Staying within the new range would show spending is tracking its plan.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 costs to run the business exceed $2.2 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 costs to run the business are $2.2 billion or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,495 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The FDA accepted the application for review before its August approval. Any added review steps could affect wider use.
Supportive ifThe November 4 update reports no new FDA review issues and confirms the approved use remains in place.
Worry ifThe FDA announces a new review issue, limits the approved use, or changes its approval status.