Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.50-9.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RXRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain operating cash burn below $390 million in 2026 | It plans to keep cash burn under $390M in 2026. | Improving | annual cash burn exceeds $390 million in 2026 | Cash from operations: $-105.947M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=390 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-105,947,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, with a long-term thesis tied to drug-development progress and partnerships rather than current profits. The thesis is in a watch state, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious.
RXRX is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported by expectations for future platform potential rather than current earnings. The model points to a sizable expectations gap, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence says the valuation is not paired with the full combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, results remain uncertain: the latest evidence includes an earnings miss, a lowered 2026 cash operating expense outlook, and elevated risk, while the next-print miss risk is worth watching. Over the multi-year view, cost control and pipeline progress are mixed, with REC-4881 advancing, REC-7735 receiving IND clearance, and Sanofi optioning a candidate for a milestone payment.
A key favorable test is whether guidance reverses course next quarter and whether partner milestones continue to turn the platform into drug candidates. The thesis also depends on clinical progress and cost control; weaker employment data or softer healthcare-sector results could add pressure to an already uncertain business setup.
For the next 1 to 3 years, RXRX remains a high-risk platform story with real partnership and pipeline activity, but limited financial proof and an expensive valuation. The long-term thesis depends on execution turning those milestones into durable commercial progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership departures in next 12 months. |
| Intact |
| unexpected key executive departures occur |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about 42% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=42% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 30% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.94 → $-0.84 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.93 | $83,762,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.93 | $83,762,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.93 | $83,762,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.93 | $83,762,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.94 | $83,762,890 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.93 | $83,762,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.91 | $81,575,130 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.91 | $81,575,130 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.88 | $67,789,410 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.94 | $73,962,886 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.89 | $58,675,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.90 | $54,800,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.87 | $55,625,598 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.84 | $41,950,598 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.84 | $41,950,598 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.