Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.50-9.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RXRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 75.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -34.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 109.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RXRX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-02
by reference. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) and 7.01 (including Exhibits 99.2 and 99.3) on this Form 8-K, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set f…
Why it matters: The results can show whether the lower 2026 spending limit still holds. Cash and spending also test the stated runway plan.
Watch forRecursion keeps 2026 cash operating expenses below $375 million. After the October share offering, it confirms its cash will last into 2029.
Also watch forRecursion raises its 2026 cash spending limit above $375 million. Or it reports that cash will last less than into 2029.
Why it matters: The new Phase 2 data can test whether the earlier drop in polyp burden holds up. It may also shape the path to a larger study.
Watch forThe November 2 update shows polyp burden fell further or stayed near the prior 53% drop at Week 25, with no new serious safety issue.
Also watch forThe update shows a much smaller benefit than the prior 53% Week 25 drop, or a new serious safety concern.
Why it matters: A clear FDA path could move REC-4881 closer to a study that supports approval. A request for more data could slow that progress.
Watch forIn the second half of 2026, Recursion reports FDA agreement on a study design for REC-4881. The study could support registration.
Also watch forRecursion reports that the FDA needs more trials or data before it can set a registrational study path.
Why it matters: Starting the ZINNIA study would show that REC-7735 moved from lab work into patient testing. A delay would push out this pipeline step.
Supportive ifRecursion announces that the first patient starts the Phase 1/2 ZINNIA study by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe study has not started by December 31, 2026, or Recursion reports a delay beyond 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$330 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $712 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,274 loss on $10,000 · 42.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.