Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.63+5.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RXRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 91.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RXRX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the second quarter June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Keeping cash burn under $390 million is key. This helps extend cash into early 2028 without new funds.
Worry ifCash operating costs will stay under $375 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifCash operating costs are over $390 million. This shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: An update on the approval process could explain the timeline. This affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifFDA update on the registrational path for REC-4881 expected in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNo update or negative feedback from the FDA regarding REC-4881's development.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Recursion's performance. It shows the sector is recovering.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More data could prove REC-1245 is safe and effective. This will affect its development.
Supportive ifNew Phase 1 data shows it is safe. It also supports pharmacokinetics in 2H26.
Worry ifData shows big safety issues or harmful effects for REC-1245.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$308 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $672 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,817 loss on $10,000 · 58.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Maintaining cash runway is crucial for Recursion to fund its operations and pipeline. Updates will show if they are on track.
Watch forManagement says cash will last into early 2028 without more funding.
Also watch forManagement updates cash runway guidance. They may need more funding.
Why it matters: New data could show how well REC-4881 works for treating Familial Adenomatous Polyposis. This is important for its future approval.
Supportive ifMore Phase 2 data will be shown at the CGA-IGC Annual Meeting on November 2, 2026.
Worry ifNo new data presented or data shows poor efficacy results.
Why it matters: New data may show the drug works for Familial Adenomatous Polyposis. This is key for its approval.
Supportive ifNew Phase 2 data shows it works well to reduce polyp burden.
Worry ifData shows no clear benefits or safety issues.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss is down from last year. This shows better financial management.
Worry ifNet loss is up from last year. This raises concerns about sustainability.
Why it matters: The outcome of litigation can affect the company's work and money. Investors should stay updated.
Worry ifManagement shares good news. The lawsuit is resolved in a positive way.
Less concerning ifManagement shares bad news about the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Watching cash burn will show if Recursion can keep its cash burn under $390 million.
Worry ifQ2 cash burn reported below $97.5 million, indicating a path to meet the annual target.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash burn is over $97.5 million. This shows problems with managing costs.
Why it matters: This data will show how well REC-4881 treats familial adenomatous polyposis. Good results could help it get approved.
Supportive ifPresentation shows a median reduction in polyp burden greater than 50% at Week 25.
Worry ifData shows no big drop in polyp burden or safety issues.
Why it matters: Starting this trial will show if Recursion can move its pipeline forward. It will test its AI platform for drug development.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the Phase 1/2 trial start for REC-7735 in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in starting the trial beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping cash burn low is crucial for extending the cash runway into early 2028 without new financing.
Supportive ifActual cash operating expense was below $375 million for 2026.
Worry ifCash operating expense is over $375 million. This shows poor cost control.
Why it matters: Advancing this target could prove Recursion's AI platform works. It may lead to more partnerships and money.
Supportive ifThere is news about progress in small molecule design for the neuroscience target.
Worry ifThere are no updates on the neuroscience collaboration. There are no progress or setbacks.