Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ryan Specialty (RYAN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.54+3.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.41 → 2.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RYAN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchase program expanded to $600 million | The company repurchased $260 million in shares recently, expanding its buyback program to $600 million. | Intact | Share repurchase program reduced below $600 million or buybacks halt | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RYAN is a financial-services business with recent strong performance, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk make this a more execution-sensitive thesis than a durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still intact, though the latest earnings miss and weaker momentum have changed the signal from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence flags RYAN as expensive, with an expectations gap suggesting the market already assumes a demanding level of performance. Confidence in that valuation read is low, but expensive valuation combined with weak execution quality makes the setup fragile.
Near term, revenue is growing, but organic growth slowed to 4.0% in the third quarter from 11.8% in the first quarter; management kept its mid-single-digit growth guidance for 2026. Share repurchases and dividends are being delivered, while restructuring has yet to show clear margin gains, and the recent earnings miss adds execution risk.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also depends on organic growth stabilizing and the Empower restructuring producing efficiency gains; sector results and interest-rate conditions may affect the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on RYAN sustaining revenue growth and improving execution despite slowing organic growth, an earnings miss, and an expensive valuation. Evidence is mixed, and valuation confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ryan Specialty's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend cut below $0.13 per share |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDAC margin decline limited to 100-150 basis points in 2026 | A primary condition in Ryan Specialty's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDAC margin down 100-150 bps in FY26. | Intact | Margin decline exceeds 150 basis points in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 7.6% to 8% per year | Ryan Specialty grows revenue about 8% a year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 7.6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.35 → $2.42 · observed estimates
$3.51B → $3.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.35 | $3,505,724,340 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.35 | $3,505,724,340 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.35 | $3,505,724,340 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.34 | $3,506,732,065 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.34 | $3,506,732,065 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.35 | $3,505,724,340 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.34 | $3,506,732,065 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.34 | $3,509,609,252 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.34 | $3,509,609,252 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.40 | $3,521,349,810 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.40 | $3,521,349,810 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.41 | $3,525,152,630 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.41 | $3,526,740,130 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.41 | $3,526,740,130 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.41 | $3,532,789,470 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.38 | $3,526,491,899 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.42 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.41 | $3,534,140,939 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.41 | $3,534,849,751 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.41 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.41 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.41 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.41 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.41 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.43 | $3,534,089,023 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.43 | $3,528,151,523 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.43 | $3,528,151,523 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.43 | $3,528,151,523 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.43 | $3,528,151,523 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.43 | $3,528,151,523 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.43 | $3,527,976,085 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.43 | $3,529,941,760 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.43 | $3,529,387,448 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.43 | $3,529,387,448 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.42 | $3,518,986,573 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.42 | $3,519,861,573 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.42 | $3,519,878,398 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.42 | $3,519,878,398 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.42 | $3,511,217,167 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.42 | $3,511,801,636 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.