Ryan Specialty (RYAN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.91-1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 54.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
RYAN — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Other Events. On July 30, 2026 , the Company's board of directors (the “Board”) declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share on the outstanding Class A common stock. The regular quarterly dividend will be payable on August 25, 2026 , to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 11, 2026 .
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's future.
Supportive ifThe company announces share repurchases of at least $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or fewer buybacks in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase to more than $0.13 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend or maintains it at $0.13 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal challenges for Ryan Specialty.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains stable or increases.
Why it matters: A drop in the EBITDAC margin may show higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAC margin is below 35% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDAC margin remains at or above 35% for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,970 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A fall in net income margin may mean higher costs or less profit.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 11% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income margin remains at or above 11% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop could mean rising costs. This can hurt profits and affect investor feelings.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDAC margin fell more than 150 basis points year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe adjusted EBITDAC margin stayed the same or got better compared to last year in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is strong. It promises to return money to investors.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend to below $0.13 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in organic revenue growth may mean lower demand or market problems.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 6% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth remains above 6% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show strong use of money and trust in the company.
Supportive ifThe company will announce $300 million in share buybacks next quarter.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a reduction in the program.