Ryan Specialty (RYAN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.54+3.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 82.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RYAN — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Other Events. On October 29, 2026 , the Company's board of directors (the “Board”) declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share on the outstanding Class A common stock. The regular quarterly dividend will be payable on November 24, 2026 , to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 10, 2026 .
Why it matters: Ryan said most casualty lines grew, while property fell. A wider property drop could weaken total growth.
Worry ifThe next results show a worse property decline than in Q3, while fewer casualty lines grow.
Less concerning ifProperty results return to growth, or casualty growth stays broad and offsets the property decline.
Why it matters: The Q3 margin was 30.9%, down from 31.2% a year earlier. A further drop would show that higher costs still weigh on results.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC margin is below 30.9% year over year. Or the company reports a full-year drop of more than 150 basis points.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC margin is at least 31.2%, or the full-year drop is under 100 basis points.
Why it matters: Ryan repurchased $150 million of shares in Q3 and had $150 million left in its plan. The next report can show if that pace continues.
Supportive ifRyan reports at least $150 million in share repurchases in the next quarter.
Worry ifRyan reports no share repurchases in the next quarter or suspends its repurchase plan.
Why it matters: Organic growth fell to 4.0% in Q3 from 11.8% in Q1. A stronger result would show that new wins and renewals can offset a tough market.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is above the mid-single-digit range. Or next quarter is above 5%.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is below 5%, or the next quarter is below 4%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $435 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,970 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The board set a $0.13 per-share dividend, payable November 24. Payment would confirm the announced capital return.
Supportive ifRyan pays the $0.13 per-share dividend on November 24, 2026.
Worry ifRyan cancels, cuts, or delays the $0.13 dividend before payment.