Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rayonier (RYN)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.17+2.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.61 → 0.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RYN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash from operations to support business | Cash from operations rose to $34.6 million. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $27.7 million next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $145.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026145,169,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a merger-integration and cyclical operating-recovery thesis, not a steady compounder today. The signal has improved to mildly favorable, but the thesis remains on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
The evidence rates RYN as cheap, but it also shows a 1.57 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.54, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations already embedded in the valuation.
Over the near term, merger integration is on track: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA improved from the prior-year pro forma quarter, and management has a $40 million annual synergy goal within 24 months. Real Estate results have exceeded prior guidance, while Wood Products improved from Q1 to Q2, but both priorities remain mixed and overall recent performance is weak. A guidance cut at the next call is a key near-term risk, despite two recent earnings beats and a low stated miss probability.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on realizing merger synergies and sustaining improvement in Real Estate and Wood Products. Near-term rate cuts could support the Real Estate sector, while weak results from sector bellwethers could remove that support. A guidance cut would also weaken the operating case.
RYN’s operating evidence has improved, especially on integration, but uneven segment execution and weak performance versus its industry cohort leave the 1-to-3-year thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company pays a $0.26 dividend per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.26 in FY26-Q1 |
Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.26 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income from recent loss | A primary condition in Rayonier's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves toward positive territory. | Improving | Operating income remains negative or worsens next 4 quarters | Operating income: $34.615M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202634,615,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain strong revenue growth post-merger | A primary condition in Rayonier's published investment case. The stated target is >=78% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 78% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 272.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=78% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026272.147966 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.66 → $0.57 · observed estimates
$1.60B → $1.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.66 | $1,602,152,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.66 | $1,602,152,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $1,602,152,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $1,602,152,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.66 | $1,602,152,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.65 | $1,603,202,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.66 | $1,643,154,099 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.65 | $1,603,202,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.65 | $1,603,202,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.65 | $1,603,202,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.65 | $1,603,202,730 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.62 | $1,604,652,730 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.62 | $1,604,652,730 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.61 | $1,607,974,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.61 | $1,607,974,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.68 | $1,593,869,399 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.63 | $1,611,612,085 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.61 | $1,607,934,502 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.62 | $1,603,798,397 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.62 | $1,603,798,397 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.63 | $1,597,136,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.63 | $1,597,136,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.63 | $1,597,136,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.63 | $1,597,136,781 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.59 | $1,640,174,898 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.57 | $1,638,508,231 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.