Rayonier (RYN)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.17+2.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RYN — President transition
Dated 2026-07-17
Senior Vice President, Wood Products — Ryan M. Daniels: Ryan M. Daniels was promoted to Senior Vice President, Wood Products.
Why it matters: Rayonier bought back $72.4 million of shares in Q2. Its next report will show whether buybacks continue alongside merger costs and debt.
Watch forA Q3 filing or results release reports share repurchases. Less than $126 million remains authorized.
Also watch forThe Q3 report shows no share repurchases. The full $126 million authorization remains unused.
Why it matters: Wood Products EBITDA rose to $25.0 million in Q2 as lumber prices strengthened. Shipments test whether the business can meet its stated volume target.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows shipments near the pace needed to reach about 1.1 billion board feet for the 2026 plan period. EBITDA is at least $25 million.
Also watch forShipments fall below the pace needed for about 1.1 billion board feet. Or Wood Products EBITDA falls below its Q1 level of $6.8 million.
Why it matters: Real Estate EBITDA was $38.3 million in Q2, above prior guidance. Q3 results will show if land sales keep pace with the full-year plan.
Watch forQ3 results keep full-year Real Estate EBITDA guidance at $180 million or more. Q3 EBITDA is near the pace needed to reach it.
Also watch forManagement lowers the full-year Real Estate EBITDA range below $180 million. Or Q3 EBITDA falls far below the pace needed to reach it.
Why it matters: The merger added scale but also raised costs and debt. Lower merger costs and clear savings would show that integration is advancing.
Watch forQ3 results show merger costs below Q2's $10.4 million and name progress toward the $40 million annual synergy goal.
Also watch forQ3 merger costs rise above $10.4 million. Or management reports delays to the $40 million annual synergy goal within 24 months.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,609 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.