Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION (RYZ)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.71-0.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.35 → 2.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RYZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $88-$92 million in Q2 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA should rise to $88-$92 million in Q2. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $65 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RYZ is a merger-integration and industrial-cycle story, with growth tied to combining the businesses and gaining shipment share. The thesis has improved from cautious to mixed, but earnings quality remains fragile and management execution volatile.
RYZ is expensive versus peers, while the expectations gap is elevated and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence suggests expectations are demanding relative to execution quality, so the merger's growth potential appears important to the valuation.
Near-term results have improved: RYZ reported earnings beats in July and October, and company momentum rose. Through Q3, revenue and shipments increased, annualized merger synergies exceeded the first-year target, and expenses fell as a share of revenue, though dollar expenses rose and productivity progress is mixed. A guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, while recent performance has still trailed its industry cohort.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued merger integration, shipment growth, and progress toward the two-year synergy goal. A guidance cut or weaker results from industrial bellwethers could weaken the sector backdrop; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from those peers would support it.
For the 1-3 year view, RYZ shows tangible merger and operating progress, but fragile earnings quality, uneven execution, and an expensive valuation leave the thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is $1.86-$1.93 billion. |
| Under Pressure |
| Revenue falls below $1.56 billion in Q2 2026 |
Revenue: $2.178B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.86-$1.93 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20262,177,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share | The company keeps paying a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share. | Intact | Dividend is cut or suspended in next 4 quarters | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.35 → $2.76 · observed estimates
$7.33B → $8.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.35 | $7,334,598,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.35 | $7,334,598,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.35 | $7,334,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.31 | $7,205,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.37 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.33 | $7,310,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.35 | $7,397,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.35 | $7,397,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.36 | $7,571,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.56 | $7,952,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.56 | $7,952,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.56 | $7,952,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.76 | $8,037,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.76 | $8,037,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.