RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION (RYZ)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.31+2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $88-$92 million in Q2 2026: Q2 EBITDA $90M (midpoint) vs $88M-$92M target.
Ryerson aims to grow revenue to $1.86-$1.93 billion in Q2 2026. Adjusted EBITDA should rise to $88-$92 million in Q2. The company keeps paying a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share. These show progress from a loss-making position.
Ryerson is still loss-making and volatile. Its recent guidance is soft. Profit growth may not meet targets soon.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $29. Analysts expect 28% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this but sees risks.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $65 million in Q2 2026
Target Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO, in the range of $88 million to $92 million for third quarter 2026, including contributions from Olympic Steel.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the industrial sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been below industry peers, but there are signs of improvement post-merger.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but there is a negative expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic.
Management is on track to achieve key priorities, including synergy targets and revenue growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and RYZ's ability to meet or exceed its guidance. Any cuts to guidance could lead to negative reactions, while continued sector strength could support growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO increased from $67.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $101.0 million in 2026-Q2 (+49.9%). Management guides Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO between $88 million and $92 million, including Olympic Steel's contribution. The trajectory shows strong improvement and delivery above prior guidance.
“Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO was $101.0 million in second quarter, exceeding guidance.”
“Second quarter Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO expected in range of $88 to $92 million.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.56 billion in Q2 2026
Grow net sales in third quarter 2026 to between $1.87 billion and $1.95 billion, reflecting continued post-merger expansion and market demand.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.57 billion in 2026-Q1 to $2.01 billion in 2026-Q2 (+28.1%). Management guides Q3 2026 net sales between $1.87 billion and $1.95 billion, reflecting continued growth post-merger. The trajectory shows strong revenue growth and delivery above prior guidance.
“Generated revenue of $2.01 billion in second quarter, exceeding guidance.”
“Net sales expected in Q2 2026 to be in the range of $1.86 billion to $1.93 billion.”
Breaks if: Dividend is cut or suspended in next 4 quarters
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share to stockholders, sustaining shareholder returns.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board consistently declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share in 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. This steady dividend payment reflects sustained shareholder return commitment with no change in amount.
“Board declared quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share payable on September 17, 2026.”
“Board declared quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share payable on June 18, 2026.”
“Board declared quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share payable on March 19, 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RYZ's performance will depend on both internal execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.